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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
felix in, 98 out, 99 in
      Tue Sep 04 2007 02:15 AM

felix's inner core is looking better this evening. it might tip back up to 5 before going in, probably a tad north of puerto cabezas. would be kinda unprecedented to have two category 5 hurricanes hit within a few hundred miles of each other two weeks apart. looking possible tonight, but there's still a chance felix will even weaken a tad more. in any case it's quite a hurricane, and is going to bang the place up pretty good.
don't like the terminal track... like dean this thing keeps leaning west of guidance. might keep plowing west and reform in the pacific or something like that; wouldn't surprise me.
98L lost it's surface trades push, sort of in a large deformation zone ahead of the next oncoming wave. that wave has nothing in the way of convection to speak of, but it killed 98L deader than a hammer. happens sometimes, and in this case prevented a storm. we haven't had the sort of wave-series this year that spawns one storm after another.. large sal breakouts, easterly shear, and an inconsistent wave pattern have kept the mdr fairly quiet so far this season. that doesn't take away from the fact that the two that made it through have both bottom out as cat fives.
99L is my big worry. it has my near and dear chunk of coastline in mind, i fear. there's still a rush of subsidence that might squash it tomorrow, but if that doesn't then it's just stuck out there mid week over hot waters, with steadily improving synoptic conditions and the ridge rebuilding over it. 12z euro put it in about where i started thinking when i first saw the setup, though there's still a big spread from the models so far. still a lot of uncertainty, but if that sucker gets the ball rolling it can come up quick, and turn the later half of this week into a real bad one for people on the southeast coast. be vigilant.
HF 0214z04september

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Felix and More MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 04 2007 02:15 AM
. * * Re: Landfall ShanaTX   Tue Sep 04 2007 07:29 AM
. * * Re: Landfall danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 06:45 AM
. * * Re: Landfall charlottefl   Tue Sep 04 2007 06:36 AM
. * * Landfall danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 06:28 AM
. * * Re: Recon cieldumort   Tue Sep 04 2007 06:16 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Recon nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Sep 04 2007 05:08 AM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 04:53 AM
. * * Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in Random Chaos   Tue Sep 04 2007 03:33 AM
. * * Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in cieldumort   Tue Sep 04 2007 03:18 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:20 AM
. * * felix in, 98 out, 99 in HanKFranK   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:15 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? TheWXMan   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:09 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? CarolinaGurl   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:01 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Ed in Va   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Last night's recon abort Random Chaos   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:37 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? lunkerhunter   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:27 AM
. * * Last night's recon abort weather999   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:26 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? oil tracker   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Felix and More nicaragua   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:18 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Random Chaos   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:07 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Lysis   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Hugh   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:47 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? LoisCane   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:34 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Ed in Va   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:19 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:17 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Hugh   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:54 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:30 PM
. * * so what caused Felix to weaken? LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:22 PM
. * * Felix Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:59 PM
. * * 99L ltpat228   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More HCW   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More cieldumort   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More lunkerhunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:28 PM

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