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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
felix in, 98 out, 99 in
      Mon Sep 03 2007 10:15 PM

felix's inner core is looking better this evening. it might tip back up to 5 before going in, probably a tad north of puerto cabezas. would be kinda unprecedented to have two category 5 hurricanes hit within a few hundred miles of each other two weeks apart. looking possible tonight, but there's still a chance felix will even weaken a tad more. in any case it's quite a hurricane, and is going to bang the place up pretty good.
don't like the terminal track... like dean this thing keeps leaning west of guidance. might keep plowing west and reform in the pacific or something like that; wouldn't surprise me.
98L lost it's surface trades push, sort of in a large deformation zone ahead of the next oncoming wave. that wave has nothing in the way of convection to speak of, but it killed 98L deader than a hammer. happens sometimes, and in this case prevented a storm. we haven't had the sort of wave-series this year that spawns one storm after another.. large sal breakouts, easterly shear, and an inconsistent wave pattern have kept the mdr fairly quiet so far this season. that doesn't take away from the fact that the two that made it through have both bottom out as cat fives.
99L is my big worry. it has my near and dear chunk of coastline in mind, i fear. there's still a rush of subsidence that might squash it tomorrow, but if that doesn't then it's just stuck out there mid week over hot waters, with steadily improving synoptic conditions and the ridge rebuilding over it. 12z euro put it in about where i started thinking when i first saw the setup, though there's still a big spread from the models so far. still a lot of uncertainty, but if that sucker gets the ball rolling it can come up quick, and turn the later half of this week into a real bad one for people on the southeast coast. be vigilant.
HF 0214z04september

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Felix and More MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 03 2007 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Landfall ShanaTX   Tue Sep 04 2007 03:29 AM
. * * Re: Landfall danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Landfall charlottefl   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:36 AM
. * * Landfall danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Recon cieldumort   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Recon nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:08 AM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:53 AM
. * * Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 11:33 PM
. * * Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in cieldumort   Mon Sep 03 2007 11:18 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:20 PM
. * * felix in, 98 out, 99 in HanKFranK   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:15 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? TheWXMan   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:09 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? CarolinaGurl   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:01 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Ed in Va   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Last night's recon abort Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:37 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? lunkerhunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:27 PM
. * * Last night's recon abort weather999   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:26 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? oil tracker   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More nicaragua   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:18 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:07 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Lysis   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:55 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Hugh   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:47 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:34 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Ed in Va   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:17 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Hugh   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:30 PM
. * * so what caused Felix to weaken? LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:22 PM
. * * Felix Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:59 PM
. * * 99L ltpat228   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More HCW   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More cieldumort   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More lunkerhunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 12:28 PM

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