cieldumort
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Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in
Tue Sep 04 2007 03:18 AM
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Agree with all HF wrote regarding 99L. Might add that it's that time of year when these little rather benign-looking features (benign during other times of the year) can just go gangbusters in next to no time (recall Felix & Dean, most recently) and being so close to shore, 99 might be a rude awakening to those coastal residents still of the opinion that 2007, like in 2006, is somehow proof of a "return back to normal." It's fairly obvious that most people are not fully appreciative of the significance of both Dean & Felix, and our named count to date. Lots of still-unprepared folks out there right now.
Back to Felix - Felix appears to be intensifying a bit more tonight - should really be no real surprise - major hurricanes seldom maintain category 5 status for very long, usually falling back to 4, or 3, and often back up again, very often only due to internal structural changes, and nothing more. One has to hold their breath for something like a true classic, almost annular hurricane, such as 2005's absolutely incredible Hurricane Ioke was, to witness one that actually "breaks the rules."
It continues to appear most probable that Felix will make landfall as a Category 4, possibly a 5. The core of sustained hurricane-force winds within Felix only extend 30 miles or so out, and the winds of Felix, along this path, will weaken fairly quickly once inland.. except perhaps in the numerous higher elevations of Nicaragua/Honduras. So, structural damage along the sparsely-populated coast in this relatively narrow cone about the eye.. especially within the front and really right-front quadrant, will be blown to smithereens.. especially those not built with standing up to 140 mph winds in mind - how many are there?
During and/or after the initial EF3 tornado-like onslaught to this small section of the cost, some of these same areas will likely pick up some surge, but Felix is relatively small, has a very compact wind field, and the coastline is not appreciably at risk for surge, completely unlike the boot of Louisiana, for example.
Provided the continued west track verifies all the way to landfall, the greatest risk from Felix will probably occur when he is getting wrung out over the mountainous terrain of Central America, resulting in life-threatening flash floods. Fortunately, with his forward speed, something like an exact repeat of Mitch is unlikely... fortunately, again provided, forward speed continues and the remnant cyclone continues to shear to shreds and spread out over a wider area, rather than get held back, bunch up, and rain out over some mountainous terrain.
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