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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: 99L
      Tue Sep 04 2007 01:52 AM

Quote:

is 99l still attached to the front or is it a low on it's own yet?



It appears I am the only Met frequenting this thread...

The answer is no. The recent analysis is that the stationary boundary has washed out and we now have a low with a surface trough subtended S approximately 77W/30N.

This is encouraging for this system's genesis phase as it means the phase-transition is becomeing more purely barotropic and less baroclinic.

Moreover, another encouraging sign is that there is new convective elements exploding close to the center of circulation.

There is still shear impacting the area, however, so this is not in any rapid intensification by a long shot.

Models are still indicating development off the 00z runs. The GFS has a TC suggestion and the the oft' over-zealous CMC still tries to develop a significant TC. The NAM still suggests steady development while drifting the vortex ESE to the eastern Bahamas.

I have a funny feeling this system will make headlines! There is way more model support than not for this to spin up and the key for me is the evolving favorable UL wind field together with way more oceanic heat content than knows what to do with. At that time, about 66+ hours out, this is probably going to develop stronger than models in keeping with the usual 'gets deeper and more intense than expected' bias that pervades results of both machine and man expectations as of late.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Sep 04 2007 01:53 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Subtropical Gabriel, no longer 99L; still some concern for East Coast typhoon_tip Tue Sep 04 2007 01:52 AM
. * * Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast cieldumort   Thu Sep 06 2007 07:58 PM
. * * Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:49 AM
. * * Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 07 2007 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast orlandocanewatcher   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast Loudest Tundra in Florida   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast nc_tropical_wx79   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast Loudest Tundra in Florida   Sun Sep 02 2007 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 03 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 03 2007 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 03 2007 03:22 PM
. * * 99L ltpat228   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:55 PM
. * * Re: 99L nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:06 AM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:52 AM
. * * Re: 99L orlandocanewatcher   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:12 AM
. * * Re: 99L Lee-Delray   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:47 AM
. * * Re: 99L Lamar-Plant City   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:45 AM
. * * Re: 99L Hurricane29   Tue Sep 04 2007 08:01 AM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:26 PM
. * * Re: 99L scottsvb   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:27 PM
. * * Re: 99L doug   Tue Sep 04 2007 05:28 PM
. * * Re: 99L nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Sep 04 2007 09:05 PM
. * * Re: 99L inverst1   Tue Sep 04 2007 09:29 PM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:47 AM
. * * Re: 99L Bloodstar   Wed Sep 05 2007 02:52 PM
. * * Re: 99L allan   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:55 AM
. * * Re: 99L scottsvb   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:32 AM
. * * Re: 99L allan   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:45 AM
. * * Re: 99L Ed in Va   Tue Sep 04 2007 10:04 PM
. * * Re: 99L Random Chaos   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:55 PM
. * * Re: 99L scottsvb   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:32 AM
. * * Re: 99L Lee-Delray   Tue Sep 04 2007 05:57 PM
. * * Re: 99L LoisCane   Tue Sep 04 2007 08:15 PM
. * * Re: 99L typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:35 AM
. * * Re: 99L allan   Tue Sep 04 2007 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:26 PM

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