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News Talkback >> 2007 Storm Forum

scottsvb
Weather Master

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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl

Re: 99L
Wed Sep 05 2007 01:32 AM

I might have to repost this every six hours.
Well this has been a easy forecasting hurricane season so far. 99L might be alittle more difficult but still I feel straight forward. Lets look at it:

Right now its a LLC inbeded from a decay frontal trough. The center has picked up enough Tropical Characteristics to be at least subtropical in nature. Inhibiting factor so far on this is the shear. Models feel this will slow down and turned NW after meandering for a day...some say it will head back to florida. Lets look at why this wont come back to florida. 1 foremost is the ridge will not lie over the midatlantic...its more over the NW atlantic...moreso the ridge will slide to bermuda and have a SE-NW orientation with it. Now in the Nowcasting side of things we have a trough digging in just north of the system...this should swing 99L in the near term more NE later tonight into Weds....and as this trough weakens the Ridge should develop over the NW atlantic thru the end of the week and migrate south towards bermuda taking anything NW. I think NC has the best chance of getting brushed by this then SE N.E. but another cold front and stronger will slide into N.E. and probably keep the main center off shore. This is though more then 5 days out and anything really more then 3 days is unclear. Its not certain that this will move into the Outerbanks directly. As the 0Z runs come out later tonight and more data is collected things will be more clearer tomorrow. If that Nowcast shortwave was just a few deg ahead of 99L ...99L would of been more S and SE and would of posed more of a threat to Florida and SC. Right now.. its just not .

scottsvb

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Subtropical Gabriel, no longer 99L; still some concern for East Coast	typhoon_tip	Wed Sep 05 2007 01:32 AM
Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast	cieldumort	Thu Sep 06 2007 07:58 PM
Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast	typhoon_tip	Thu Sep 06 2007 11:49 AM
Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast	typhoon_tip	Fri Sep 07 2007 10:54 PM
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast	orlandocanewatcher	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:20 PM
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast	Loudest Tundra in Florida	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:30 PM
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast	nc_tropical_wx79	Sun Sep 02 2007 07:15 PM
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast	Loudest Tundra in Florida	Sun Sep 02 2007 09:14 PM
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast	typhoon_tip	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:49 AM
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast	typhoon_tip	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:34 PM
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast	typhoon_tip	Mon Sep 03 2007 03:22 PM
99L	ltpat228	Mon Sep 03 2007 04:55 PM
Re: 99L	nc_tropical_wx79	Tue Sep 04 2007 01:06 AM
Re: 99L	typhoon_tip	Tue Sep 04 2007 01:52 AM
Re: 99L	orlandocanewatcher	Tue Sep 04 2007 11:12 AM
Re: 99L	Lee-Delray	Tue Sep 04 2007 11:47 AM
Re: 99L	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Sep 04 2007 11:45 AM
Re: 99L	Hurricane29	Tue Sep 04 2007 08:01 AM
Re: 99L	typhoon_tip	Tue Sep 04 2007 01:26 PM
Re: 99L	scottsvb	Tue Sep 04 2007 02:27 PM
Re: 99L	doug	Tue Sep 04 2007 05:28 PM
Re: 99L	nc_tropical_wx79	Tue Sep 04 2007 09:05 PM
Re: 99L	inverst1	Tue Sep 04 2007 09:29 PM
Re: 99L	typhoon_tip	Wed Sep 05 2007 01:47 AM
Re: 99L	Bloodstar	Wed Sep 05 2007 02:52 PM
Re: 99L	allan	Thu Sep 06 2007 08:55 AM
Re: 99L	scottsvb	Thu Sep 06 2007 11:32 AM
Re: 99L	allan	Thu Sep 06 2007 11:45 AM
Re: 99L	Ed in Va	Tue Sep 04 2007 10:04 PM
Re: 99L	Random Chaos	Tue Sep 04 2007 11:55 PM
Re: 99L	scottsvb	Wed Sep 05 2007 01:32 AM
Re: 99L	Lee-Delray	Tue Sep 04 2007 05:57 PM
Re: 99L	LoisCane	Tue Sep 04 2007 08:15 PM
Re: 99L	typhoon_tip	Wed Sep 05 2007 01:35 AM
Re: 99L	allan	Tue Sep 04 2007 11:10 AM
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast	StrmTrckrMiami	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:26 PM

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