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The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 56 (Milton) , Major: 56 (Milton) Florida - Any: 56 (Milton) Major: 56 (Milton)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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Tampa
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Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas
      Wed Sep 05 2007 10:36 AM

I will say 2 things regarding intensity and track:

1. For intensity, the convection is very close to the LLC, so I believe
that once shear lessens, as the latest TWO says that conditions will become
more favorable, rapid strengthening is likely with a building ridge to the north.
Several models make this a hurricane and GFDL brings it to Category 2.
That is not impossible given the warmth of the gulfstream waters and the several
days this system has over the water.

2. As for track, I do not see this going out to sea. As we have seen with
Felix and Dean, the early long-range models out 3-5 days tend to
underestimate the ridge. Therefore, I think the track and model
consensus should shift substantially to the left, increasing
the threat to the carolinas, and depending on the ridge, possibly
even georgia or florida. This early in the forecast, you cannot rule
these areas out.

Convection as certainly been impressive, and it is likely to consolidate
closer and closer to the low level circulation as shear lessens.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 05 2007 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Marcus   Fri Sep 07 2007 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas John Mellonhead   Fri Sep 07 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas scottsvb   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Bastardicasting   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Thu Sep 06 2007 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Lee-Delray   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas hurrev   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas allan   Thu Sep 06 2007 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas hurrev   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas invest1   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas HanKFranK   Thu Sep 06 2007 07:37 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas BLTizzle   Thu Sep 06 2007 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Thu Sep 06 2007 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas BillD   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas DJINFLA   Wed Sep 05 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas craigm   Wed Sep 05 2007 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas LoisCane   Wed Sep 05 2007 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas CDMOrlando   Wed Sep 05 2007 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Felix teal61   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas doug   Wed Sep 05 2007 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 05 2007 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Steve H1   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Tampa   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas LoisCane   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas invest1   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:54 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:48 AM

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