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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5A 6:00 pm EDT
15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas
      Wed Sep 05 2007 02:46 PM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP

DEVELOPING CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

THE NAM IS FURTHER TO THE S AND W THAN THE GFS THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND IS AROUND 25 MB DEEPER AT THE SFC BY THE END OF DAY 2.
THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z CMC/UKMET GLOBAL ARE FASTER THAN THE NAM TO
CARRY THE SYSTEM WWD...BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED GIVEN
THAT ITS 12HR FORECAST SHOWED A POSITION WELL WEST OF WHAT WAS
OBSERVED AT 12Z...WHILE THE CMC/UKMET INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM TOO
FAR W AS WELL. GIVEN THE POOR INITIALIZATIONS OF THE MODELS...DO
NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION...

BUT IN COMPARISON TO THE REMAINING MODELS THE GFS
APPEARS TOO WEAK WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE TO THE N OF THE SYSTEM AND
IS THEREFORE TOO SLOW TO MOVE THE SYSTEM WWD...WHILE ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO MOVE TOO FAR TO THE N. A MORE PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED/SLY
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS WOULD BETTER FIT THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NOT
READY TO BUY INTO A SOLUTION AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS
POOR FORECAST OR THE CMC/UKMET GIVEN THEIR POOR INITIALIZATIONS.

NOT SURE A SYSTEM AS DEEP AS THE NAM IS IN ORDER EITHER GIVEN ITS
TENDENCY TO OVER-AMPLIFY ANY SYSTEM OF A TROPICAL NATURE. THAT
SAID...THE CURRENT HPC/TPC THINKING IS FOR A TRACK FURTHER TO S
AND DEEPER THAN THE GFS...BUT NOT QUITE AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CMC
GLOBAL/UKMET/00Z ECMWF.

THERE ARE ALSO ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTH/WRN EXTENT
OF THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC AND ERN/SERN CONUS.
TELECONNECTION-FAVORED UPSTREAM CONFIGURATION FAVORS A HEALTHY
SERN RIDGE CLOSER TO WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF/RECENT NCEP
MEANS/06Z-12Z GFS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SERN COAST TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NWD ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THE 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WWD TOWARD THE
DOMINANT CLUSTER OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE.

FINAL MANUAL FCST http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day3nav.html

DEPICTS THE HPC/TPC COORDINATED TRACK FOR THIS FEATURE.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 05 2007 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Marcus   Fri Sep 07 2007 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas John Mellonhead   Fri Sep 07 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas scottsvb   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Bastardicasting   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Thu Sep 06 2007 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Lee-Delray   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas hurrev   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas allan   Thu Sep 06 2007 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas hurrev   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas invest1   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas HanKFranK   Thu Sep 06 2007 07:37 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas BLTizzle   Thu Sep 06 2007 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Thu Sep 06 2007 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas BillD   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas DJINFLA   Wed Sep 05 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas craigm   Wed Sep 05 2007 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas LoisCane   Wed Sep 05 2007 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas CDMOrlando   Wed Sep 05 2007 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Felix teal61   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas doug   Wed Sep 05 2007 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 05 2007 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Steve H1   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Tampa   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas LoisCane   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas invest1   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:54 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:48 AM

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