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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 576
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas
      Thu Sep 06 2007 12:46 AM

Quote:

From the TWD issued at 8:05 PM

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 320 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N70W...ANALYZED 1008 MB...HAS
GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE. ... HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FWIW, several of the models are developing something out of this, but no mention of that in the discussion.

Bill



They won't do that, pretty much ever. There is no purely tropical model beyond statistical based guidance..which does purely tropical physics. Everything is either baroclinic [meaning, based on horizontal differentiable medium] or limited-scaled baroclinic at best, and that means that inherently, they are prone to inaccuracies, particularly during the genesis phase.

No one want's to "officiate" a statement based on inherently erroneous tools. So it is understandable policy that they mention model coverage only after a system is already trackable. The reason why is because storm genesis outside the tropics is physcically different, in that it is based on fluid mechanics combined with temperature and dp gradients across that fluid medium. In the tropics, however, the quadrants are even -- typically -- and the only engine is the thermodynamics in the vertical, such that a coupled oceanic heat content with the lower atmosphere provides an abundance of convective available potential energy to rising parsels.

When you have a cyclonic curvature at upper levels of that which is observable this night impacting the area, this creates a medium conducive to extra-tropical cyclogensis. I have not been stellar in my own anticipations of this system evolution thus far.. I did not foresee this trough establishing its self with this strength. The overal picture has changed toward one which will take a long time if ever, to become tropical entity.


Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Sep 06 2007 01:06 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 06 2007 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Marcus   Fri Sep 07 2007 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas John Mellonhead   Fri Sep 07 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas scottsvb   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Bastardicasting   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Thu Sep 06 2007 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Lee-Delray   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas hurrev   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas allan   Thu Sep 06 2007 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas hurrev   Thu Sep 06 2007 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas invest1   Thu Sep 06 2007 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas HanKFranK   Thu Sep 06 2007 07:37 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas BLTizzle   Thu Sep 06 2007 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Thu Sep 06 2007 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas BillD   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas DJINFLA   Wed Sep 05 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas craigm   Wed Sep 05 2007 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas LoisCane   Wed Sep 05 2007 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas CDMOrlando   Wed Sep 05 2007 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Felix teal61   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas doug   Wed Sep 05 2007 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 05 2007 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Steve H1   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Tampa   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas LoisCane   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas invest1   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:54 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:48 AM

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