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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas
      Thu Sep 06 2007 05:21 AM

Quote:

99L looks very ragged tonight. I'm not sure it's going to survive. Does anyone have any specifics on when the shear is supposed to lessen?



Good question! This is instrumental in this system's future. The shear was not very well modeled.

There has been strong diurnal convection in the lower Mississippi Valley the last 2 days and this is fluxing convective heat release into the atmosphere in the area and into the SE U.S. That raises heights because of the heat insert causing an expansion of the medium -- like filling a balloon. But there is no rubber boundary in the atmosphere so the expansion causes the wind to increase as it flows outward from areas of expansion to areas of less pressure. The result is an increase in the ridge intensity over the SE, which causes increases wind flow into the weakness off the SE Coast. The trough appears stronger than modeled, because the models ultimately have not been handling the consequence of latenet heat release of convection in the deep south over the Mississsippi Valley very well.

I believe this is the cause for the trough digging into 75W and ultimately the shear stress on the system.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 06 2007 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Marcus   Fri Sep 07 2007 09:21 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas John Mellonhead   Fri Sep 07 2007 06:44 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Fri Sep 07 2007 03:39 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 07 2007 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas scottsvb   Fri Sep 07 2007 02:33 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Bastardicasting   Fri Sep 07 2007 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Fri Sep 07 2007 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Lee-Delray   Fri Sep 07 2007 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas hurrev   Fri Sep 07 2007 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas allan   Thu Sep 06 2007 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Thu Sep 06 2007 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas hurrev   Thu Sep 06 2007 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas invest1   Thu Sep 06 2007 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas HanKFranK   Thu Sep 06 2007 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas BLTizzle   Thu Sep 06 2007 07:06 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Thu Sep 06 2007 05:36 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 06 2007 04:46 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas BillD   Thu Sep 06 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Thu Sep 06 2007 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas DJINFLA   Wed Sep 05 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas craigm   Wed Sep 05 2007 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas LoisCane   Wed Sep 05 2007 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas CDMOrlando   Wed Sep 05 2007 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Felix teal61   Wed Sep 05 2007 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas doug   Wed Sep 05 2007 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 05 2007 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 05 2007 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Steve H1   Wed Sep 05 2007 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Tampa   Wed Sep 05 2007 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas LoisCane   Wed Sep 05 2007 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas invest1   Wed Sep 05 2007 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Sep 05 2007 01:48 PM

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