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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Posts: 576

Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas
Thu Sep 06 2007 01:21 AM

Quote:

99L looks very ragged tonight. I'm not sure it's going to survive. Does anyone have any specifics on when the shear is supposed to lessen?

Good question! This is instrumental in this system's future. The shear was not very well modeled.

There has been strong diurnal convection in the lower Mississippi Valley the last 2 days and this is fluxing convective heat release into the atmosphere in the area and into the SE U.S. That raises heights because of the heat insert causing an expansion of the medium -- like filling a balloon. But there is no rubber boundary in the atmosphere so the expansion causes the wind to increase as it flows outward from areas of expansion to areas of less pressure. The result is an increase in the ridge intensity over the SE, which causes increases wind flow into the weakness off the SE Coast. The trough appears stronger than modeled, because the models ultimately have not been handling the consequence of latenet heat release of convection in the deep south over the Mississsippi Valley very well.

I believe this is the cause for the trough digging into 75W and ultimately the shear stress on the system.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Disturbance off the Carolinas	MikeC	Thu Sep 06 2007 01:21 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	Marcus	Fri Sep 07 2007 05:21 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	John Mellonhead	Fri Sep 07 2007 02:44 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 06 2007 11:39 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	typhoon_tip	Thu Sep 06 2007 10:47 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	scottsvb	Thu Sep 06 2007 10:33 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	Bastardicasting	Thu Sep 06 2007 10:28 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	nc_tropical_wx79	Thu Sep 06 2007 09:23 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	Lee-Delray	Thu Sep 06 2007 08:36 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	hurrev	Thu Sep 06 2007 08:31 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	allan	Thu Sep 06 2007 01:04 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	typhoon_tip	Thu Sep 06 2007 12:11 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 06 2007 10:16 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	hurrev	Thu Sep 06 2007 10:10 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	invest1	Thu Sep 06 2007 08:06 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	HanKFranK	Thu Sep 06 2007 07:37 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	BLTizzle	Thu Sep 06 2007 03:06 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	nc_tropical_wx79	Thu Sep 06 2007 01:36 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	typhoon_tip	Thu Sep 06 2007 01:21 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	typhoon_tip	Thu Sep 06 2007 12:46 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	BillD	Wed Sep 05 2007 09:51 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	Ed in Va	Wed Sep 05 2007 09:07 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Sep 05 2007 05:43 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	DJINFLA	Wed Sep 05 2007 04:42 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	MikeC	Wed Sep 05 2007 04:38 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	craigm	Wed Sep 05 2007 04:02 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	MikeC	Wed Sep 05 2007 03:49 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	LoisCane	Wed Sep 05 2007 03:44 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	CDMOrlando	Wed Sep 05 2007 02:46 PM
Re: Felix	teal61	Wed Sep 05 2007 01:28 PM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	doug	Wed Sep 05 2007 11:32 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 05 2007 11:28 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	MikeC	Wed Sep 05 2007 11:02 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	Steve H1	Wed Sep 05 2007 10:55 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	Tampa	Wed Sep 05 2007 10:36 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	LoisCane	Wed Sep 05 2007 10:33 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	invest1	Wed Sep 05 2007 10:20 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Sep 05 2007 10:04 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	Ed in Va	Wed Sep 05 2007 09:54 AM
Re: Disturbance off the Carolinas	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Sep 05 2007 09:48 AM

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