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that upper low, which was poorly foreseen and highly underestimated in just about all the modeling, laid 99L flat. the system is finally 'blocked', i.e. track is bending south and should turn west shortly. at the same time that upper low hasn't cut off, or moved west of the system, or done any of the things that would have lessened shear. 99L behaved more like a frontal low, clinging to the western side of the upper low, and has now lost much of its definition and convective activity as the induced baroclinic conditions subsided.
all of the models are out to lunch. if anything survives this (which has longer odds now, with all the subsidence to fight and so little definition) the near unanimous contention that it will latch onto the first shortwave and recurve near north carolina is probably also out to lunch. for whatever remains, i'd expect it to sort of jerk and bob around in weak steering, working slowly westward under the ridge while it lasts. otherwise, the near tropcial cyclone we had the other day is a wash.
eastern atlantic has nothing to offer. massive, well-defined waves with no convection are cans of corn. the upper low cutting off southeast of newfoundland has a better chance than the big wave near 45w. modeling develops another storm later, but all recurve it well off out to sea.
the ominous look of things a couple days ago is evaporating. if 99L smears out completely and never gets out from under the shear, we're into another lull.
season so far has been defined by long periods of nothing between weak storms, and huge category fives barreling west across the caribbean.
HF 1137z06september

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Hank',
this may not be the time nor place but I get a somewhat different vibe than you concerning the TW that has just come off near Sierra Leone. Significant cyclonic turning with an approximate lat/lon axis near 22W/9N and ongoing moderate to strong convection contained.

John

(Just a reminder to all that comments on the latest wave off of Africa are better suited to another Forum since this wave was not mentioned in the Main Page leadoff article.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Sep 07 2007 08:25 AM)

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