MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching
Fri Sep 07 2007 06:52 AM
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9:00 PM EDT 7 Sep Update
99L didn't quite make it today, but if it persists overnight, maybe even just one good burst of convective activity near the center, it could get going into a storm sometime tomorrow. If dry air wins out then it may not get much activity going tomorrow either. Still about a 45% chance for development tonight.
Recon couldn't find much if any surface winds, so it has a rather uphill battle to form overnight. Hopefully it loses and this system is just a small rain maker.
4:30 PM EDT 7 Sep Update
Recon so far is finding fairly high pressures, higher than a few days ago even, so it looks like this system will not form today.
3PM EDT 7 Sep Update
Recon is in the Atlantic now, heading toward 99L, hopefully we'll have some data from then in an hour or so.
There is convection firing along the north and northwest sides of the low now, dry air is retreating to the west. The west (although starting to gain some convection now), southwest, and south sides still are void of convection, but that may change soon.
Original Update
For those watching the disturbance of our Southeastern US coastline, the low level circulation managed to survive
yesterday and the slow progression westward has started. It's currently still being sheared, but conditions may improve today. Therefore those along the southeast should be watching the progression of it.
Recon is tentatively scheduled to head out to the system this afternoon to check out the system.
Thinking hasn't changed much from yesterday, meaning that the system still has a lot to fight to keep going, and it will continue westward for a bit then back out into the Atlantic later. Odds are still that it won't make landfall or amount to much, but still there is a chance it will. Slow moving systems, sheared systems, do a lot tot complicated things. So it remains worth watching at least. Conditions for it to develop are still nowhere near ideal, and dry air and shear will remain an issue for development, but they are much better than the past two days.
Some models hook it back anywhere from out to sea to South Carolina, but most do not do well with systems of this nature, so it's difficult to take them at face value right now. The best guess right now is that the storm comes very close to the Carolinas but does not make landfall, and most of the rain would be offshore.
Have a guess or "feeling" where 99l will go or how strong it will be, let us know here
Chances for development have gone slightly up since yesterday, but today really will be a good indicator of what may happen.
Chances for Tropical Development of Disturbance off Southeast Coast (99L) In Next 2 days
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------*-----------]
Outside of 99L, not too much, a disturbance in the Gulf west of Florida may be worth watching. Look and watch if this one persists through the day.
Added: Also, a large but disorganized tropical wave moved off the coast of West Africa yesterday evening (near 13N 24W at 07/12Z). Easterly shear in that region has subsided over the last couple of days, so this one could be something to keep an eye on.
ED
Radar Loops
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne FL}}
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville FL}}
{{radarlink|clx|Charleston, SC}}
{{radarlink|ltx|Wimington, NC}}
{{StormLinks|99L|99|7|2007|3|99L (Area off Georgia/Florida)}}
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