cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Make or Break for 99L, Worth Watching
Fri Sep 07 2007 10:36 AM
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It's just about a done deal, imho. 99L has freed itself from the clutches of dry air as the shear began to relax. In the hours and probably days ahead, shear will likely only continue to relax more, overall.. especially as, if as now seemingly much more probable, 99 starts to build high pressure aloft.
With the environment surrounding 99 starting to moisten up in response to the diminished shear making for better internals, and a fairly tight little vortex already in place within a reasonably large broader cyclonic envelope, it seems highly probable to me that recon will find a storm there by later today. Recall that sustained winds are already running, perhaps conservatively running, 30 knots.
Whether this is yet a fully tropical entity, or becomes a fully tropical entity in the short-run is somewhat inconsequential at the moment. In fact, if 99s subtropical characteristics should win out, and as models are trending to forecast more of a sideswipe than a direct hit to the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic, the cyclone will tend to work in tandem with the building ridge to its north to result in some of the strongest winds funneling down from the northeast well away from the center of circulation - such as might be far more typical of a subtropical storm or extratropical gale. Nonetheless, a core of strong winds already exists in the center, and as time begins working for rather than against 99, this thing may become fully tropical - with the kicker of a nor'easter-like element along its northern and western extent.
Accuweather might not be that far off the rocker with regard to something developing in the GOM. There does appear to be a general surface weakness there, and in the western Caribbean, left by the remnants of former Category 5 Felix. Just last night an impressive mesolow formed in the Bay of Campeche and quickly ramped up quite an impressive cluster of deep thunderstorms about and near its center. Upper level winds being rather favorable as well, water temps still very conducive, etc. .. imho, they are not at all out to lunch. Area is ripe.
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