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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
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Ene at 17 mph
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
take, etc.
      Sat Sep 08 2007 01:14 AM

it'll probably be a tropical storm sometime tomorrow. at some point in its life cycle it ought to become a hurricane. the north carolina track looks good as typically everything threatening the eastern seaboard aims for north carolina. much can't be said for it aside from that, as the upper low that dived on it was not well predicted by the models, and that prevented it from getting organized mid-week. it still came to be anyhow, since the synoptic forcing nearby outweighed smaller-scale negative factors.
that little blip in the gulf has some of the less reliable models biting. all it takes is a good mcc to get something that can actually start rolling to appear. whether it organizes or not, more rain for texas. sure they're looking forward to that.
no invest on it, but the wave that's nearing the cape verdes has a lot going for it in terms of development chances. most all of the models recurve it early with casual disregard. sooner it develops, better the chances.. there's a significant weakness between newfoundland and the azores.
we're almost to the season midpoint and on storm seven now. la nina years usually stay active late, but things are really trailing (and global scale factors don't seem ready to fall into place) for this season to end as hyper-active. it looks like above normal numbers but not extreme in terms of raw count, but those two category fives really spiked the monthly ntc/ace index numbers. on dean and felix alone we ought to have most of a full season's worth of activity.
speaking of felix, the death toll in coastal nicaragua is significant. there weren't a whole heck of a lot of people living where it made landfall, but it looks like it got a lot of them.
HF 0514z08september

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Gabrielle heads for North Carolina MikeCAdministrator Sat Sep 08 2007 01:14 AM
. * * Other Systems danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 09 2007 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas craigm   Sun Sep 09 2007 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas syfr   Sun Sep 09 2007 07:11 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 09 2007 03:21 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Clark   Sun Sep 09 2007 02:56 AM
. * * Re: 90L Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 09 2007 02:51 AM
. * * 90L ltpat228   Sun Sep 09 2007 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Random Chaos   Sun Sep 09 2007 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Beach   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas flahurricane   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas ltpat228   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas LoisCane   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:33 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:33 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Random Chaos   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Random Chaos   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas flahurricane   Sun Sep 09 2007 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Beach   Sat Sep 08 2007 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas ltpat228   Sat Sep 08 2007 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Sat Sep 08 2007 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Beach   Sat Sep 08 2007 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Lamar-Plant City   Sat Sep 08 2007 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Sat Sep 08 2007 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Sat Sep 08 2007 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Sep 08 2007 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Hugh   Sat Sep 08 2007 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Sep 08 2007 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas nc_tropical_wx79   Sat Sep 08 2007 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Seaworthy991   Sat Sep 08 2007 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Beach   Sat Sep 08 2007 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas allan   Sat Sep 08 2007 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas JY381   Sat Sep 08 2007 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas madmumbler   Sat Sep 08 2007 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas cieldumort   Sat Sep 08 2007 02:56 PM
. * * Re: take, etc. weather_wise911   Sat Sep 08 2007 02:52 PM
. * * Re: take, etc. Wxwatcher2   Sat Sep 08 2007 02:13 PM
. * * Re: take, etc. weather999   Sat Sep 08 2007 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas scottsvb   Sat Sep 08 2007 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas Lamar-Plant City   Sat Sep 08 2007 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas MM   Sat Sep 08 2007 10:56 AM
. * * Re: take, etc. Ed in Va   Sat Sep 08 2007 10:16 AM
. * * Re: take, etc. dem05   Sat Sep 08 2007 06:34 AM
. * * Re: take, etc. flahurricane   Sat Sep 08 2007 02:42 AM
. * * Re: take, etc. scottsvb   Sat Sep 08 2007 02:10 AM
. * * take, etc. HanKFranK   Sat Sep 08 2007 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas punkyg   Fri Sep 07 2007 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 07 2007 10:57 PM

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