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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

take, etc.
Sat Sep 08 2007 01:14 AM

it'll probably be a tropical storm sometime tomorrow. at some point in its life cycle it ought to become a hurricane. the north carolina track looks good as typically everything threatening the eastern seaboard aims for north carolina. much can't be said for it aside from that, as the upper low that dived on it was not well predicted by the models, and that prevented it from getting organized mid-week. it still came to be anyhow, since the synoptic forcing nearby outweighed smaller-scale negative factors.
that little blip in the gulf has some of the less reliable models biting. all it takes is a good mcc to get something that can actually start rolling to appear. whether it organizes or not, more rain for texas. sure they're looking forward to that.
no invest on it, but the wave that's nearing the cape verdes has a lot going for it in terms of development chances. most all of the models recurve it early with casual disregard. sooner it develops, better the chances.. there's a significant weakness between newfoundland and the azores.
we're almost to the season midpoint and on storm seven now. la nina years usually stay active late, but things are really trailing (and global scale factors don't seem ready to fall into place) for this season to end as hyper-active. it looks like above normal numbers but not extreme in terms of raw count, but those two category fives really spiked the monthly ntc/ace index numbers. on dean and felix alone we ought to have most of a full season's worth of activity.
speaking of felix, the death toll in coastal nicaragua is significant. there weren't a whole heck of a lot of people living where it made landfall, but it looks like it got a lot of them.
HF 0514z08september

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Gabrielle heads for North Carolina	MikeC	Sat Sep 08 2007 01:14 AM
Other Systems	danielw	Sun Sep 09 2007 12:39 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	craigm	Sun Sep 09 2007 09:56 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	syfr	Sun Sep 09 2007 07:11 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 09 2007 03:21 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Clark	Sun Sep 09 2007 02:56 AM
Re: 90L	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 09 2007 02:51 AM
90L	ltpat228	Sun Sep 09 2007 02:16 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Random Chaos	Sun Sep 09 2007 02:04 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:59 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Beach	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:56 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	flahurricane	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:47 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	ltpat228	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:36 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	LoisCane	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:33 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:33 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Random Chaos	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:26 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	nc_tropical_wx79	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:23 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Random Chaos	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:19 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:17 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	nc_tropical_wx79	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:14 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	flahurricane	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:09 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Beach	Sat Sep 08 2007 11:30 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	ltpat228	Sat Sep 08 2007 11:29 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	nc_tropical_wx79	Sat Sep 08 2007 11:25 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Beach	Sat Sep 08 2007 11:21 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Sep 08 2007 11:15 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	nc_tropical_wx79	Sat Sep 08 2007 11:13 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	nc_tropical_wx79	Sat Sep 08 2007 11:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	StrmTrckrMiami	Sat Sep 08 2007 11:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Hugh	Sat Sep 08 2007 10:55 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sat Sep 08 2007 10:53 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	nc_tropical_wx79	Sat Sep 08 2007 10:43 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Seaworthy991	Sat Sep 08 2007 10:33 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Beach	Sat Sep 08 2007 10:24 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	allan	Sat Sep 08 2007 07:38 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	JY381	Sat Sep 08 2007 06:56 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	madmumbler	Sat Sep 08 2007 05:41 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	cieldumort	Sat Sep 08 2007 02:56 PM
Re: take, etc.	weather_wise911	Sat Sep 08 2007 02:52 PM
Re: take, etc.	Wxwatcher2	Sat Sep 08 2007 02:13 PM
Re: take, etc.	weather999	Sat Sep 08 2007 01:49 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	scottsvb	Sat Sep 08 2007 12:26 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Sep 08 2007 11:53 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	MM	Sat Sep 08 2007 10:56 AM
Re: take, etc.	Ed in Va	Sat Sep 08 2007 10:16 AM
Re: take, etc.	dem05	Sat Sep 08 2007 06:34 AM
Re: take, etc.	flahurricane	Sat Sep 08 2007 02:42 AM
Re: take, etc.	scottsvb	Sat Sep 08 2007 02:10 AM
take, etc.	HanKFranK	Sat Sep 08 2007 01:14 AM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	punkyg	Fri Sep 07 2007 11:00 PM
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas	typhoon_tip	Fri Sep 07 2007 10:57 PM

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