9:15 AM EDT 11 September Update
92L hit a wall of dry air that we missed, 90L won't get organized. And 91L still may develop over the next few days.
It is the historical peak of season so it's still worth watching.
8:20 AM EDT 10 September Update
92L (The system northeast of the Caribbean) fell apart last night as it just failed to persist convection, and it lacked a lot of low level activity and convergence.
Oddly enough there is convection, but well to the southwest of where the "center" was. It's safe to consider 92L a non issue, thankfullty, unless this new pulse of convection keeps going.
91L looks like it still may form within the next day or two, and 90L is just holding on. Gabrielle is moving away from the Mid Atlantic states, but has weakened to a depression.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Gabrielle made landfall at 11:45 on Cape Lookout in North Carolina. Much of the rainfall remains offshore as the storm is expected to head out to the northeast and away from the mainland.
September 10th is the statistical peak of hurricane season, and the activity out there now would seem to verify that:
90L is a system in the southern Gulf, conditions and shear are not favorable at all for this system, and development really isn't expected as it moves westward.
90L Forecast Lounge Here) .
90L Development chances within next 48 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----*---------------]
91L in the Central Atlantic is moving westward and conditions may improve there in the next few days and we'll watch for development. Currently this probably has the best chance of all the "invests" for development.
91L Forecast Lounge (Discuss Here)
91L Development chances within next 48 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----------*---------]
Most interesting to us in Florida is 92L, which is northeast of the Caribbean. It is in a somewhat favorable area and may form into a depression within a day or so.
92L is near 17.3N 57.5W, and so far, it has become much better organized in the past 24 hours.
The current movement is to the west at 13 MPH. This system will be moving away from a zone of westerly shear into an area of almost no wind shear, so the prospect of development is high. A west northwest track is anticipated. Additional development is possible and residents of the Bahamas and the southeastern U.S. should closely monitor the development of this potentially troublesome system. The only saving grace that may deflect this is the front currently over the middle section of the US. More to come on this system later.
Forecast Lounge for 92L here
92L Development chances within next 48 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------*------------]
More can be found on Ed Dunham's blog post below "Wave Mongering Part II"
We're recording Mark Sudduth's (Hurricane Track.com) webcam tower on Hatteras along with the Morehead city radar for Gabrielle.
You can see these At this link.
Radar Loops
{{radarlink|mhx|Morehead City, NC}}
{{radarlink|ltx|Wimington, NC}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Gabrielle|07|7|2007|3|Gabrielle}}
{{StormLinks|90L|90|8|2007|1|90L (Gulf System)}}
{{StormLinks|91L|91|9|2007|2|91L (Central Atlantic)}}
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