HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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suspcious but slow
Sun Sep 09 2007 05:10 PM
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gabrielle has thundered ashore as a monstrous 50-mph tropical storm, crossing the sound and peninsula areas west of the outer banks. for some reason it left all of its convection at morehead city. there isn't much that can be said for it... thanks to an upper low diving off and sitting on it for most of the week, the storm never got well organized and developed very slowly. i maybe earned a cookie with a side of crow on that one.
it's september 9th, so naturally the season is trying to put on it's peak-time show. like most are saying, 91L has the best chances to develop in the long term, due to location and organization. it should do so slowly, probably not becoming a named system until it gets a bit past 40w. the islands need to watch it for late week, as it may be a maturing system by then.
of more immediate concern, but less certainty are the gulf invest 90L and 92L northeast of the leeward islands. 90L gets a good grade for persistence, but a bad one on execution. the upper winds over the gulf aren't helping, but even a weak system could cause a lot of trouble in texas due to it having something akin to a summer monsoon season. it's chances are weak, but it won't have to do much.
92L has some unpleasant early guidance taking it to the east coast of florida, and that sort of track would likely verify with ridging to the north strengthening. it isn't overtly developing as of yet, but has shown a good lengthy convective burst and some tendency to develop outflow aloft--the synoptic pattern will favor it if it starts to develop, so it's worthy of concern, if not immediately threatening.
odd first-half count on the season. five tropcial storms and two category five hurricanes. beam me up, mr scott.
HF 2110z09september
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