The following post is Not an Expert Opinion,
but it presents a superficial analysis of some of the
synoptics.
After hours of extensive research into the synoptics, I think
I have a better idea what may happen:
1. With the ridge building, we will see a WNW
motion towards the Bahamas.
2. 2 troughs are forecasting to dig into
the Southeast by Friday, the first on Tuesday.
In 2-3 days, 92L will feel the influence
of these troughs, and depending on the
strength of the ridge, may recurve
while close to florida's east coast and head
up to the carolinas.
3. Some moisture the next 2-3 days over florida,
but after that, with 90L moving west, and
92L making a close call with the coast, the weather
will be dry or wet depending on where
92L decides to recurve.
4. If the ridge wins out, I see a track
into Southeast florida. If the trough wins out,
I see impacts on North Carolina.
5. It appears that many have provided
evidence of a strengthening ridge, in that case
the threat to florida's southeast coast
may increase, unless a trough pushes
92L away.
6. The environment is looking very favorable
over the bahamas, so some rapid intensification is
likely, once a depression gets going.
7. The current decline in convection is due to diurnal
minimum. It WILL refire. The same thing happened
last night. Therefore 92L is not dead.
After reading HankFrank's post, I will lean towards
the ridge solution for now.
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