cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: suspcious but slow
Sun Sep 09 2007 10:58 PM
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Yeah, I think 92L has the makings of what -could- *rapidly* reorganize into a player, for the reasons mentioned above (erm, less the dyno-gel.. I think that idea has been shown to be "prehistoric" these days. Sticky subject, anyway).
Much like Tip above, I was just about mystified by the rapid seeming evaporation of convection, but 92L does seem to be at the apex of an active area which rolled off Africa a few days ago, and somewhat suspect that it is competing with several of these TC seedlings embedded within this subtle gyre for the right stuff. Perhaps some easterly shear got involved at just the wrong time, as well. (All guesses).
Looking at the entire stretch of the Tropical & Subtropical Atlantic it is really hard to argue against at least one or two more named systems forming this week. I've also been eyeballing the large deeply-layered non-tropical low way north for another extra to sub to tropical transition. This time of year it's entirely possible to see that happen. Several more impressive waves are also set to roll off Africa.
Gabrielle didn't look a whole lot better than 96L of a few days ago, really. Highly sheared and lots of dry air, but when it comes down to it, it seems likely that NHC will probably log Gabby's peak intensity before landfall at 65MPH in the historical record based on a recon finding of 55 knots in the SE quad Sunday morning, and plenty of ground-truthing from area ships, buoys, etc. to support that. Up to a foot of rain has already fallen under that convective burst just offshore. Too bad more of it couldn't come ashore and help quench the region's thirst. Lopsided tropical cyclone, but noteworthy. 96 probably peaked at around 45 knots. Maybe gets a post-season bump. At least a good second look, I would bet.
La Nina appears to be baked in the cake. As has been mentioned elsewhere, these can tend to draw out the length of an Atlantic season. Given that we are about to cross the mid-point with at least seven names, to extrapolate that out to 14 by November 30 is really easy to do, especially considering how the east Pac appears to be in the process of shutting down a bit in the face of cooler SSTs and general subsidence.
If you had told me at the start of 2007 that we would be about to turn the clock on September 10 with five storms, but also 2 cat 5s, I would have asked what you were smokin'. Weeiird.
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