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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

Re: 92L and GOM
Mon Sep 10 2007 07:48 PM

gabrielle is departing, maybe strengthening slightly.. but what little worry it had to offer has come and gone.
90L has some definite turning with it. it has had weak/broad cyclonic motion for days, but now seems to have focused it a bit more east/southeast of brownsville. what is out there is moving slowly westward... if anything develops it would be caught sort of in weak steering and it's hard to say where exactly a system would go. early on a northeastward motion would make sense with the shortwave passing by presently, but afterwards a quick pulse of ridging could easily block it, and keep it offshore. i get the idea that it's starting to develop based on presentation.
91L will probably beat the others to be the next system. most of the early guidance takes it generally westward... the gfdl and hwrf move it nw. the dynamic models are probably right until the thing develops.. then it's usually something in-between. that huge wheelhouse ridge from last month doesn't seem to be together anymore, so i doubt it's another straight-west type system in the works.
92L has the smallest chances. the convection popped back up today, south of yesterday's fierce burst. synoptic conditions aren't wrong for something to develop there, but there isn't much of a place to start in terms of a surface feature. the bursts may amount to nothing or they may help get something started. it looks like this disturbance will be in a favorable location, with regional scale pressure falls, later in the week as it nears florida. assuming it hasn't done anything prior to this, there may be some superior conditons for something to get started. the way things are going that is pure speculation at this point.
probably will have something classifyable by late tomorrow, almost surely something on wednesday. this time of year it's unusual for things to remain quiet for very long... by the time we're finally rid of gabrielle something should be there to take it's place.
HF 2348z10september

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
(Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics	MikeC	Mon Sep 10 2007 07:48 PM
Tropics	TeamJP2002	Thu Sep 13 2007 01:15 AM
Re: now and then	cieldumort	Tue Sep 11 2007 10:11 PM
Re: now and then	tekkrite	Tue Sep 11 2007 10:09 PM
Re: now and then	Hugh	Tue Sep 11 2007 08:52 PM
now and then	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 11 2007 06:13 PM
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics	allan	Tue Sep 11 2007 06:05 PM
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics	Beaumont, TX	Tue Sep 11 2007 05:59 PM
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics	allan	Tue Sep 11 2007 05:38 PM
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics	punkyg	Tue Sep 11 2007 05:27 PM
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics	Beaumont, TX	Tue Sep 11 2007 04:28 PM
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics	LoisCane	Tue Sep 11 2007 03:38 PM
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics	punkyg	Tue Sep 11 2007 03:36 PM
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics	cieldumort	Tue Sep 11 2007 02:56 PM
Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics	allan	Tue Sep 11 2007 12:20 PM
90 And 92L Removed Monday 9-10-07	ltpat228	Tue Sep 11 2007 12:04 PM
Re: 92L and GOM	weather999	Tue Sep 11 2007 11:45 AM
Re: 92L and GOM	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 10 2007 07:48 PM
Re: 92L and GOM	weatherguy08	Mon Sep 10 2007 05:17 PM
Re: 92L and GOM	RayRayfromLa	Mon Sep 10 2007 05:07 PM
Re: 92L and GOM	weatherguy08	Mon Sep 10 2007 04:51 PM
Re: 92L and GOM	LoisCane	Mon Sep 10 2007 04:03 PM
Re: 92L and GOM	Ed in Va	Mon Sep 10 2007 03:40 PM
Re: 92L and GOM	scottsvb	Mon Sep 10 2007 03:07 PM
Re: 92L and GOM	tumbleman	Mon Sep 10 2007 02:16 PM
Re: 92L and GOM	Ed in Va	Mon Sep 10 2007 01:58 PM
92L and GOM	danielw	Mon Sep 10 2007 01:12 PM
What was 92L...	Beach	Mon Sep 10 2007 12:21 PM
90L and 92L Removed	ltpat228	Mon Sep 10 2007 11:03 AM
Re: Very Busy Week in the Tropics	allan	Mon Sep 10 2007 10:34 AM
Re: Very Busy Week in the Tropics	drohner	Mon Sep 10 2007 06:36 AM
Re: suspcious but slow	cieldumort	Sun Sep 09 2007 10:58 PM
91L getting better organized	punkyg	Sun Sep 09 2007 10:41 PM
Re: suspcious but slow	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 09 2007 10:10 PM
Re: suspcious but slow	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 09 2007 09:16 PM
Re: suspcious but slow	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 09 2007 09:12 PM
Re: suspcious but slow	TampaBayHurricaneChaser	Sun Sep 09 2007 07:05 PM
suspcious but slow	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 09 2007 05:10 PM
Re: Very Busy Week in the Tropics	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 09 2007 01:26 PM

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