MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast
Tue Sep 11 2007 09:13 PM
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11:15 PM EDT 13 September Update
A NOAA recon plane on a research mission in TD 8 this evening found 35kt surface winds associated with the cyclone, supporting an upgrade to Tropical Storm Ingrid. Ingrid is expected to weaken back into a tropical depression under strong vertical wind shear over the next few days. Meanwhile, the remnants of Humberto, which made landfall early this morning near High Island, TX, are bringing 5-10" rainfall totals to parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Its remnants are expected to move slowly south and eastward over the next day or two, potentially back over the Gulf of Mexico into the weekend. No redevelopment is expected.
1:30 AM EDT 13 September Update
Recon has found a 992mb minimum central pressure in Humberto, but more importantly a very small area of hurricane-force winds at 850mb and at the surface. Thus, Humberto becomes the season's 3rd hurricane just hours before landfall in extreme eastern Texas. A special advisory package from the NHC has all of the particulars. Still, given the very small size of the wind field, rain is the primary threat from Humberto outside of those still in mobile homes after Rita in 2005.
4:50 PM EDT 12 September Update
Recon has found Humberto with pressures of 999mb, and a banding eyewall trying to form. This may wind up being a surprise to those in Houston if it gets itself together. 50MPH winds at the 5PM advisory.
2:35 PM EDT 12 September Update
Recon is finding estimated surface winds around 50-55MPH in Humberto along the Northeastern side. Humberto is a small system and it seems it is consolidating toward the center, keeping the rainfall away from Houston... at the present time. The rain will move closer later tonight.
A 60-65mph storm at landfall is not out of the question, but the primary concern is and still would be rainfall. It is likely to surprise quite a few folks in the area, however. Dry air around the system (entering from the south) should stop it short of very rapid intensification. It may be wise for some folks to prepare for a strong Tropical Storm if they are in and just to the east of the projected landfall locations.
1:53 PM EDT 12 September Update
Tropical Storm Humberto has formed from Tropical Depression #9, still moving slowly northward at 6MPH.
Tropical Storm Warnings are still up. Rain, some wind, and weaker Tornadoes are possible in Texas/Louisiana as it nears.
10:45 AM EDT 12 September Update
TD#8 out in the Caribbean is moving west northwest at 12mph, slower than most systems. It is forecast to stay fairly weak because of shear it is likely to encounter. The current forecast has it still east of the Islands 5 days out, so it would be a good while before it approached here, if at all. Because of the slow movement it is more likely to avoid landfall (more opportunities for it to be picked up), but by no means is it a sure thing. Something to watch over the long term. Guesses on what it'll do, let us know here.
TD#9 in the Gulf is going to be a big rain maker, Tropical Storm Warnings are up for TD#9 from Port O'Connor, TX east to Cameron, LA..
10:00 AM EDT 12 September Update
Double whammy formation. Tropical Depression #8 forms east of the Caribbean from 91L. At 12/12Z the Invest location was 13.1N 44.2W, movement to the west northwest at about 10 knots, pressure 1007mb and winds at 30kts gusting to 40kts. Excellent outflow developing in all quadrants - likely to become the next named storm.
Tropical Depression #9 forms in Gulf of Mexico from 90L. At 12/12Z the Invest location was 27.8N 95.2W. TD is drifting to the west northwest to northwest, pressure also at 1007mb and winds of 25kts gusting to 35kts. TD #9 is not as well organized as TD #8, so additional development, if any, will be a little slower, but still possible given the very slow forward speed. Another round of significant rainfall for the Texas coast.
Advisories for both systems should start at 11AM EDT.
Yet another wave moved off the coast of west Africa last night - located near 11N 21W at 12/12Z. This system has potential for additional development in 3 or 4 days as it moves slowly westward.
8:40 AM EDT 12 September Update
The system slowly moving northward off the Texas coast (90L) is looking better now this morning and may form into a depression today. Recon is scheduled to go out into this system later today. More to come on this system later. It is expected to bring more rain to Southeastern Texas and parts of Lousiana, regardless if it develops or not.
91L east of the Caribbean is looking very good this morning and will also likely form into a depression today. Still too early to tell where it will wind up, however.
Original Update
The wave in the Central Atlantic (east of the Caribbean, also known as 91L) is looking much better tonight and may form into a depression tonight or (more likely) within the next day or so.
This wave is moving mostly west now, model projects having it turning more northwest then back west, nearing the northern Leeward islands. There is plenty of time to watch this system however, as it is a bit south of model projections. Long range is more difficult, but right now all indications are that this one may not be a west mover like Felix and Dean.
Convection is over the low level center, Dvorak T numbers are around 1.5 (which may support a Tropical Depression) and is set to get stronger.
91L Development chances within next 48 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----------*---------]
The wave in the Gulf (90L) is nearing the Texas coastline, and is a bit too unorganized to really form into much. Likely just more rain for Texas. It has stalled however, off the coast, so it may have a small chance to form into something before landfall.
{{radarlink|hgx|Houston, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|lch|Lake Charles, LA Radar}}
{{radarlink|lix|New Orleans, LA Radar}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|TD#8|08|8|2007|2|Tropical Depression #8}}
{{StormLinks|Humberto|09|9|2007|1|Humberto}}
Edited by Clark (Thu Sep 13 2007 11:27 PM)
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