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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 284 (Idalia) , Major: 284 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 284 (Idalia) Major: 284 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2307
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: now and then
      Wed Sep 12 2007 02:11 AM

It's been my observation that on several occasions NHC will let a numberable/nameable system ride if it is of no threat to land and only to shipping, to be "handled" by the high seas forecasts. Might not be the case this time tho, best I can tell. Looks like, as NHC writes, Gabby has just lost too much of its internal structure, regardless of what the convection is doing at this time, to qualify as a tropical cyclone any longer. Most strikingly, at the surface, its center appears to be very ragged, disorganized, and with sustained winds under 20 knots, at best.

91L's upgrade looks baked in the cake. The tightening LLC of earlier today has only tightened further with time, as it has also continued to blow up deep convection. In all reality, it is probably a hair's breadth away from being an upgrade tonight. Long term prospects are potentially huge for wherever this one ends up. The environment in its path isn't at all unlike what we recently saw in the paths of our two other CV majors this past month.

90L not so baked.. maybe half-baked. Ingredients not all there today, as yesterday, as the day before - but more "there" is there with each new day. It may get it together just enough before ocean runs out on it. In fact, it may have more ocean than expected if it just rides the coast for a few extra days. Front seems to be helping pull it up a bit fast, tho. Either way 90L, whether it pulls an 11th hour number off or not, looks to pump copious moisture into the Texas coast, perhaps also following the quasi-stationary front all the way to as far east as Florida, eventually. That is to say, the moisture - if not an intact system - may easily ride along and/or push into the frontal boundary, triggering quite the clutch of tropical downpours.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 12 2007 02:11 AM
. * * Tropics TeamJP2002   Thu Sep 13 2007 05:15 AM
. * * Re: now and then cieldumort   Wed Sep 12 2007 02:11 AM
. * * Re: now and then tekkrite   Wed Sep 12 2007 02:09 AM
. * * Re: now and then Hugh   Wed Sep 12 2007 12:52 AM
. * * now and then HanKFranK   Tue Sep 11 2007 10:13 PM
. * * Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics allan   Tue Sep 11 2007 10:05 PM
. * * Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 11 2007 09:59 PM
. * * Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics allan   Tue Sep 11 2007 09:38 PM
. * * Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics punkyg   Tue Sep 11 2007 09:27 PM
. * * Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics Beaumont, TX   Tue Sep 11 2007 08:28 PM
. * * Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics LoisCane   Tue Sep 11 2007 07:38 PM
. * * Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics punkyg   Tue Sep 11 2007 07:36 PM
. * * Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics cieldumort   Tue Sep 11 2007 06:56 PM
. * * Re: (Not a) Very Busy Week in the Tropics allan   Tue Sep 11 2007 04:20 PM
. * * 90 And 92L Removed Monday 9-10-07 ltpat228   Tue Sep 11 2007 04:04 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM weather999   Tue Sep 11 2007 03:45 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM HanKFranK   Mon Sep 10 2007 11:48 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM weatherguy08   Mon Sep 10 2007 09:17 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM RayRayfromLa   Mon Sep 10 2007 09:07 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM weatherguy08   Mon Sep 10 2007 08:51 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM LoisCane   Mon Sep 10 2007 08:03 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM Ed in Va   Mon Sep 10 2007 07:40 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM scottsvb   Mon Sep 10 2007 07:07 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM tumbleman   Mon Sep 10 2007 06:16 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM Ed in Va   Mon Sep 10 2007 05:58 PM
. * * 92L and GOM danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 10 2007 05:12 PM
. * * What was 92L... Beach   Mon Sep 10 2007 04:21 PM
. * * 90L and 92L Removed ltpat228   Mon Sep 10 2007 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Very Busy Week in the Tropics allan   Mon Sep 10 2007 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Very Busy Week in the Tropics drohner   Mon Sep 10 2007 10:36 AM
. * * Re: suspcious but slow cieldumort   Mon Sep 10 2007 02:58 AM
. * * 91L getting better organized punkyg   Mon Sep 10 2007 02:41 AM
. * * Re: suspcious but slow typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 10 2007 02:10 AM
. * * Re: suspcious but slow typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 10 2007 01:16 AM
. * * Re: suspcious but slow HanKFranK   Mon Sep 10 2007 01:12 AM
. * * Re: suspcious but slow TampaBayHurricaneChaser   Sun Sep 09 2007 11:05 PM
. * * suspcious but slow HanKFranK   Sun Sep 09 2007 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Very Busy Week in the Tropics Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 09 2007 05:26 PM

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