cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: now and then
Tue Sep 11 2007 10:11 PM
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It's been my observation that on several occasions NHC will let a numberable/nameable system ride if it is of no threat to land and only to shipping, to be "handled" by the high seas forecasts. Might not be the case this time tho, best I can tell. Looks like, as NHC writes, Gabby has just lost too much of its internal structure, regardless of what the convection is doing at this time, to qualify as a tropical cyclone any longer. Most strikingly, at the surface, its center appears to be very ragged, disorganized, and with sustained winds under 20 knots, at best.
91L's upgrade looks baked in the cake. The tightening LLC of earlier today has only tightened further with time, as it has also continued to blow up deep convection. In all reality, it is probably a hair's breadth away from being an upgrade tonight. Long term prospects are potentially huge for wherever this one ends up. The environment in its path isn't at all unlike what we recently saw in the paths of our two other CV majors this past month.
90L not so baked.. maybe half-baked. Ingredients not all there today, as yesterday, as the day before - but more "there" is there with each new day. It may get it together just enough before ocean runs out on it. In fact, it may have more ocean than expected if it just rides the coast for a few extra days. Front seems to be helping pull it up a bit fast, tho. Either way 90L, whether it pulls an 11th hour number off or not, looks to pump copious moisture into the Texas coast, perhaps also following the quasi-stationary front all the way to as far east as Florida, eventually. That is to say, the moisture - if not an intact system - may easily ride along and/or push into the frontal boundary, triggering quite the clutch of tropical downpours.
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