MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
Sat Sep 15 2007 02:36 PM
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11:26 AM EDT 16 Sep Update
Ingrid is still holding on as a depression and the weaker system has allowed to to go further west. This puts the extreme Northeastern Caribbean islands in the cone of error, and means they may have to watch it as well. Because of the slow movement, any track westward that isn't forecast may be cause for concern there. Slower moving storms, especially in this part of the Atlantic, are usually harder to forecast.
The wave in the Central/Eastern Caribbean is looking better too and will likely have to be watched.
In fact, Recon has been scheduled to investigate Ingrid AND the system in the eastern central Caribbean.
8:40 AM EDT 16 Sep Update
Ingrid is still holding as a tropical depressions, still moving relatively slowly (toward the west) at present. It is still expected shortly to move more northwest and away from the islands and out to sea. Shear is being maintained on this system, and will likely keep it weak or fall into an open wave over the next few days. Still no threat to the US mainland.
The wave in the Central Atlantic still may form in the next few days, and the Southwest Caribbean may have a chance to form later in the week, and we may have to watch that if it does.
Original Update
Ingrid has weakened back into a tropical depression and the forecast track for the system keeps it well away from the US mainland. Ingrid will likely stay weak, and may even become an open wave again, but the low level circulation is rugged enough to perhaps come back later after shear subsides. Still, even then, although it may be further west if it stays weaker... it will still likely be out to sea,
Seems easy? it is all said and done? However...
Positive factors for Ingrid include the fact that the upper level low near Ingrid is moving away, which may allow conditions to improve tomorrow. In that case Ingrid would likely intensify and also likely head further north. Since the storm is still very slow moving it's worth watching for a while. This scenario is less likely of the two mentioned.
Other areas to watch include an area in the Central Atlantic (between the Caribbean and Africa) may be one to watch later for development. It's moving westward around 12-15MPH.
Another area, north of the Caribbean is one to watch because of the proximity, but nothing imminent there. Most of the convection there is caused by an upper level low pressure, which rarely fall to the surface, and shear near it is too high to support development right now, but we'll watch it. If it were to develop (not all that likely) it would take quite a while to get going.
Yet another area in the southwestern Caribbean is worth watching as well, but likely won't do much. There is also a disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean.
Lots to watch, but nothing really imminent.
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Ingrid|08|8|2007|2|Ingrid}}
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