cieldumort
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Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
Sun Sep 16 2007 06:07 AM
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Rather agree with much of the above sentiment in the lead. What we may have here is a brief calm before the (next) storm(s). If climatology, this season's performance thus far, and the number of areas we can point out right now that could very well light/light back up, is all any indication, then it is nearly a certainty that more is on the way this month. In addition to those potential warm spots mentioned above, I'm still somewhat interested in the southern Caribbean, and also in the couple of embedded ITCZ perturbations currently bouncing around 8N between 30 and 50 W.
Other than that, some specific observations I know other members and visitors may find interesting
First, while most of the vorticity and certainly virtually all of x-Humberto's moisture has blown out in to the Atlantic with the front that scooped it up and swept it away, "Believe It, Or Not," a teeny-tiny remnant low level circulation leftover has just scooted south-southwest and popped offshore, last I could make out right before eclipse, it was situated maybe 100 miles southeast from the tip of SE La. Shear is moderate, but as we have seen many times, this shear has served to (at least right up to eclipse) fan a flareup right atop the bare llc.
Prospects? Perhaps first some cons - The shear is currently running a bit high for redevelopment now that this is an entirely marginalized remnant of a remnant low level circulation. There are still all sorts of upper level mowers swirling around the western Atlantic. The jet fuel which helped power Humberto is long, long gone, leaving a bare-bones weak remnant to beg for some fuel and a lit match.
Pro? That little sucker survived this far inland and back again, after all, and in the face of some pretty high shear, and worth repeating -a lot of land-. Also, that little sucker has already seemed to find a little fuel and a lit match. Go figure. Certainly hard to forget Erin & Ivan. I want to say maybe a 5% chance for some kind of respectable regeneration.
> My other observation - Ingrid. Fighting shear like a champ tonight. Also, if anything, that shear has (once again) helped as well as hindered.. hindered any real strengthening, but also fanning ongoing convection. If anything, tonight Ingrid looks far better than she did Saturday afternoon, with deeper convection going up nearly all the way around the coc, albeit lopsided and strongly sheared. No analysis other than to acknowledge her ability to survive within some really rather high shear, thus far, and to (talking to myself) keep in mind the history of tenacious features which have done so in the past.
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