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Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
Sun Sep 16 2007 10:57 AM
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No doubt that the extent of Ingrid's weakened status has itself allowed it to be steered more westward than poleward. Only the Shallow BAM model holds out consideration of a more WNW trek, verses most others ready to steer the system more northward. 6Z UK model ( though only projecting out 48hr ), interestingly also attempts to slide Ingrid more WNW also, and in fact maintains ( or even slightly deepens ) the integrity of the system. Looking at this morning's IR, it seems evident that as the upper trough to the west of Ingrid attempts to pinch off a Caribbean cut-off low, the upper flow rather than racing Eastward, is for now starting to bend more northward in attempt to wrap around this possible cut off. Result?, as evident on this a.m. visible sat., the shear over Ingrid may be lessening just slightly. Big question is how much and for how long.
From here, I will divert from conventional meteorology. Many years show some diversity of storm tracks yet a predominant pattern somehow seems to be evident. Sometimes, a pattern where two predominant tracks take place. No doubt, this year has shown thus far, a bias for westward motion as opposed to those years of so many recurving N. Atlantic "fish spinners". Given the mid level steering of a well organized hurricane, there would seem little doubt that recurvature would seem imminent. The obvious concern is that as low level Easterly steering even becomes weakened, and if Ingrid were able to stave off shear for 48 hours, we could see very slow even erratic motion, but little significant gain in lattitude for a couple of days. Even still, upper level conditions are not likely to improve significantly for couple days thereafter, but in the event of a COL, it would be very errie to have a lingering depression or weak Tropical Storm just north of Hispanola or P.R. 5 or 6 days from now, during such a year of recurring ridging off the Eastern U.S. seaboard.
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