cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week
Sun Sep 16 2007 03:38 PM
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We've just had two cycles from SSD with Ingrid back up to 3.0/3.0. Up from 2.0/2.5 and 2.0/2.5. Even though Ingrid is taking yet another afternoon beating, again, today, I surmise that if there is one more back-to-back cycle at or above 2.5/2.5 from SSD, this might be all NHC needs to issue tropical storm watches, and maybe warnings, up for the northernmost islands (possibly as early as later today).
The shear over Ingrid remains strong, but as others have noted, the trough largely producing it appears to be attempting to close off. If it does so, this source of detrimental shear may eventually become more of a source for a positive outflow channel/diffluent flow enhancer. Seems to me that Ingrid's upside potential looks as certain as her downside potential. That is to say, I think the odds of Ingrid remaining a mere TD, or washing away altogether, is just as likely as Ingrid maintaining arguably tropical storm intensity, or ramping up.
Other features loom. The wave in the central Atlantic around the ITCZ looks to be attempting to consolidate at and/or near the surface, and light winds have begun turning markedly anti-cyclonic upstairs. Caribbean wave is about to meet up with the preexisting area of disturbed weather and lower pressures that has been hanging around from near Panama through roughly 15N. May be some early synergies in the works there, also as early as later today.
ULL near 33N/35W has made it down to the surface, and is nearly stationary, with decent convection. Not at all out of the realm of possibilities for some slow transition. Already looks an awful lot like a Kona Low (subtropical cyclones, in their own right)
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