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#HurricaneBeryl track creeping N with Texas increasingly at risk of significant impacts not just at the coast but pos. well inland #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 309 (Idalia) , Major: 309 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 309 (Idalia) Major: 309 (Idalia)
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Wind: 115MPH
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W at 16 mph
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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danielwAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 3526
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Canadian Model and other Discussions
      Mon Sep 17 2007 07:19 PM

"Never, say never, when dealing with the weather" also known as the Humberto 2007 slogan.

Someone posted "2007 The Season With No Reason" the other night.

Now to today's various Discussions. (Excerpts with links to full Discussion)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
304 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 00Z TUE SEP 18 2007 - 12Z WED SEP 19 2007
...THE FRONT WHICH DELIVERED THE COOL AIR A FEW DAYS AGO CURRENTLY
LIES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT ALONG WITH THE FORMATION OF A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS SHOULD RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES FROM THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS GOING INTO TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdspd.html

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
959 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 21 2007 - 12Z MON SEP 24 2007
...THE 06Z/17 DGEX IS UNUSABLE BECAUSE OF THE WAY IT PULLS TROPICAL
ENERGY NWD INTO THE SERN STATES AGAINST ALL OTHER GUIDANCE.
...YDAYS FINAL FCST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LOW TO TRACK NWWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FITS ACCEPTABLY WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF
00Z MODEL SOLNS... SO WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE.
LATEST THINKING FROM HPC/TPC COORDINATION WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE
NEW FINAL FCST LATER TODAY.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
318 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 12Z THU SEP 20 2007 - 12Z MON SEP 24 2007
...PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...

AFTER ELIMINATING THE DGEX AND CANADIAN AS OUTLIERS IN BRINGING
TROPICAL ENERGY WELL N INTO THE SERN STATES...AND THE NAM ALONG
THE ERN GULF COAST REGION THU DAY 3...THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY
STRAIGHTFORWARD.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
611 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 18/0000 UTC THRU SEP 21/0000 UTC
DAY 1...
...FL...
ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF WEAK E/W STNRY BNDRY WL ALSO
SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS ACRS A LARGE SECTION OF THE FL PENINSULA. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS..SOME POCKET OF MDT TO
HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...THOUGH WITH TIME SOME DRIER AIR
SHOULD WORK SWD ALONG THE NRN FL COAST. HEAVIER GFS AMOUNTS LOOK
BETTER HERE.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
119 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID SEP 17/1200 UTC THRU SEP 21/0000 UTC
MODEL TRENDS...

...LOW LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER WITH THE LOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

...LOW LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS...
THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE GEM GLOBAL MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM...BUT THESE
TWO MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS DEVELOPED BIAS WITH SYSTEMS ORIGINATING
IN THIS REGION THE PAST WARM SEASON. WILL THEREFORE RECOMMEND A
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE FASTER...FLATTER GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODEL
CONSENSUS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

After reading all of the above Discussions. I'll stick with the satellite loops, Also known as "What You see... Is what you get"~danielw

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 17 2007 07:19 PM
. * * Ingrid...she's back danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:04 AM
. * * Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions ltpat228   Mon Sep 17 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 17 2007 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions ltpat228   Mon Sep 17 2007 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions Beaumont, TX   Mon Sep 17 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Canadian Model and other Discussions danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 17 2007 07:19 PM
. * * Re: You have to love that crazy Canadian Model allan   Mon Sep 17 2007 04:04 PM
. * * You have to love that crazy Canadian Model OrlandoHurricane   Mon Sep 17 2007 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas scottsvb   Mon Sep 17 2007 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas doug   Mon Sep 17 2007 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas Lee-Delray   Mon Sep 17 2007 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas scottsvb   Mon Sep 17 2007 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas Todd Caldwell   Mon Sep 17 2007 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas Lee-Delray   Mon Sep 17 2007 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas scottsvb   Mon Sep 17 2007 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas Todd Caldwell   Mon Sep 17 2007 11:25 AM
. * * Re: september, week three Lee-Delray   Mon Sep 17 2007 10:37 AM
. * * Re: september, week three 7 Deadly Zins   Sun Sep 16 2007 09:35 PM
. * * Re: september, week three Hugh   Sun Sep 16 2007 09:15 PM
. * * Re: september, week three Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 16 2007 09:07 PM
. * * Re: september, week three Hugh   Sun Sep 16 2007 08:51 PM
. * * Re: september, week three jessiej   Sun Sep 16 2007 08:29 PM
. * * Re: september, week three madmumbler   Sun Sep 16 2007 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week cieldumort   Sun Sep 16 2007 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week Hugh   Sun Sep 16 2007 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week CDMOrlando   Sun Sep 16 2007 01:52 PM
. * * september, week three HanKFranK   Sun Sep 16 2007 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas weathernet   Sun Sep 16 2007 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas Bruce   Sun Sep 16 2007 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas madmumbler   Sun Sep 16 2007 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas flahurricane   Sun Sep 16 2007 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas cieldumort   Sun Sep 16 2007 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week Storm Hunter   Sat Sep 15 2007 03:15 PM
. * * Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week OrlandoHurricane   Sat Sep 15 2007 03:01 PM

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