Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.

danielw, rock on my friend! I am really glad that you've posted those observations. Keep those coming. At the surface, the lower pressures are likely further east. into the Bahamas, and could transition even a little further east (will get back to that in a minute). For the minute...The radar signature moving into the Miami Dade area on radar is likely a vorticity within a larger circulation envelope. However, it is also the same relative area we were all looking at earlier for possible development. Frommy standpoint, that vorticity willlikely wash out as it moves inland within the larger area of low pressure. Also, if this is the trigger point for possible tropical development (which I highly doubt it will be), it is too close to the ULL and will likely fail to aquire tropical characteristics.

That said, here in SW Florida, it is a very comfortable summer night. Compared to usual summer evenings, this is not a tropical evening. It is relatively cool and the humidity feels pretty low. It is not often that I like to open the windows to the fresh air summer air, cuase the summer air feels pretty hot and humid most of the time...but this is one night that has tempted me. If a true tropical low was off Miami, I've lived here long enough to tell you that this evening would not feel this comfortable. There again, the area coming into miami dade is not tropical and likely not the culprit of possible tropical development (Just too close to the ULL).

From this standpoint, I will puase on model developments until tropical development comes to fruition. Likewise... The probable hot pocket for development is likely further east, from where danielw pointed out and to the east of there. If you follow the shortwave satellite loops , you can pick out the low level flow. It is tightening back there, so it is not a bad area to watch that area further east. If true tropical development happens, it will happen further back there. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Mean time, for folks on the east coast of Florida, not a bad time to remember that there was once a system named Ingrid out there. The systems remenants continue to show a defined low level of vorticity. Every time t-storms develop, they rip away again as shear continues. This has supported a mostly WNW-NW path. Come wednesday night, the shear will decrease and something may come back to life...Likewise, the lack of convection allowed the former Ingrid to missit's chance out to sea. It should be moving under some decent ridging to maintain a WNW-NW motion regardless of what happens. That said, keep one half of an eye on it in case it re-forms...maybe 93L is a teaser in general....

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