Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.

Looking at sat. loops this a.m. ( both IR and WV ), this is so far certainly not looking tropcal, given the wrap around effect being caused by the upper low. That said, given time I see no way that a warm core reflection at the surface does not eventually occur. Question, as always continues to be when and where. More and more however I am coming to the conclusion that the models have been fairly impressive in their longer range ability to pick up some type of cyclongenesis event. Basically though, I am getting to the point of seeing some model concensus, and just determining that the time range is more often than not, a good deal farther away than what the models indicate. I too believe that perhaps a low level reflection may be occuring farther east than originally thought, and again later than anticipated as well.

Finally, in defense of StrTrackerMiami, the following was written by another post:

...I just want to see what a tropical depression looks like on my below-normal rain gauge in west central Florida. You are indeed crazy...I wish I had a time machine so I could send you to a trailer park in Florida City on August 24, 1992...you would never wishcast again....

Lets all keep in mind that this forum consists of those of us who range in academic and/or historic meteorlogical knowledge that ranges widely from bonified MET's to simply those who are weather enthusiasts. That said, all of us who participate by writing posts, or even those simply on the "sidelines" who read the posts, are ALL very interested in the weather and tropical cyclones, at the very least. For the sake of intellegent communication as well as moderation in the acceptance of others' views, let us at least respect one distinction between "shear fascination" and "wish-casting". For one to predict cyclogenesis and/or storm landfall, based upon a pure guess or "want" - this would be wish-casting. Someone who would wish to see the effects of a hurricane, is not wish-casting...., nor are they crazy ( death, injury, and destruction aside of course ). Whether or not moderators may wish to re-direct such opinion to another forum is their business, however the fascination of being able to actually witness the effects of a hurricane are what drive many to Meteorology as a hobby or a proffession. I for one, have chased hurricanes for years, and do so soley for the shear awe of that which I am able to witness ( and hopefully live to tell ). I am intellegent enough to know my limits of risk, and certainly do not wish any harm to anyone. My being at the point of landfall however, has no impact on the storms' impact on others, nor does one have anything to do with each other. Finally, I certainely have very mixed feelings regarding a dangerous landfall event where I live, but once again, I have no "powers" to impact such an event from happening.

So to this I can tell you, after Andrew, Charlie, Hugo, and on...., I do know the likes of the '26 storm. Do I wish it upon anyone else? Heck no. Whether or not I, or anyone elso would like to witness such an event ( safely ), is their business.

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