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The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 56 (Milton) , Major: 56 (Milton) Florida - Any: 56 (Milton) Major: 56 (Milton)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
Models
      Wed Sep 19 2007 10:22 AM

Looking at the 12Z Model Runs, it appears that some of the 12Z runs, especially the BAM Models and the CLIPER5, are initializing the system to far to the north and west. The 12Z discussion from the NHC says that the center of circulation is "located...near 26N, 79 west." The models are initializing the system as far north as 27.5 N, 80 W. On this page, http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/, I tend to favor the solutions by the Late-Cycle track guidance and the GFS Ensembles as it appears that these models are initializing the system about right. This puts landfall between the mouth of the Mississippi River and the LA-TX Border, so basically Louisiana. Also, the latest HPC guidance is bring a low pressure to near Houston, TX by days 5 and 6. I favor a track more westerly than northerly. My prediction is for a landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border on Saturday or Sunday. As for intensity, I would expect a strong tropical storm or minimal category one hurricane at landfall. GOM waters are warm (SST's in the mid 80s) and wind shear looks like it will remain relatively low.

My prediction in summary: landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border on Saturday afternoon as a 70 MPH tropical storm.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 19 2007 10:22 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 93U pcola   Thu Sep 20 2007 06:47 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 93U madmumbler   Thu Sep 20 2007 06:47 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 93U danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 20 2007 12:47 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 93U Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 20 2007 12:16 AM
. * * 93L and 93U danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 19 2007 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. flahurricane   Wed Sep 19 2007 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Hurricane29   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. SirCane   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. cieldumort   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Hugh   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. dem05   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. weathernet   Wed Sep 19 2007 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. craigm   Wed Sep 19 2007 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Old Sailor   Wed Sep 19 2007 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Rasvar   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. pcola   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. h2ocean   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. tekkrite   Wed Sep 19 2007 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. SirCane   Wed Sep 19 2007 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Hugh   Wed Sep 19 2007 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. pcola   Wed Sep 19 2007 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. allan   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. doug   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. ChessieStorm   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. anomaly18   Wed Sep 19 2007 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. allan   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. scottsvb   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. madmumbler   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. doug   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. allan   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Fletch   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. metwannabe   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. DrewC   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Marknole   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. WeatherNut   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. metwannabe   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. cieldumort   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. craigm   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. StrmTrckrMiami   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. scottsvb   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. charlottefl   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:23 AM
. * * Models weatherguy08   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. weathernet   Wed Sep 19 2007 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. NewWatcher   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. allan   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. flarrfan   Wed Sep 19 2007 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour cieldumort   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:04 AM
. * * Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour scottsvb   Wed Sep 19 2007 03:24 AM
. * * Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour cieldumort   Wed Sep 19 2007 03:14 AM
. * * Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour dem05   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Davida G   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:32 AM
. * * Bahamas Observations-Last hour danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:58 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. LoisCane   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:25 AM
. * * Ingrid Showing a Pulse this Evening OrlandoHurricane   Tue Sep 18 2007 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Old Sailor   Tue Sep 18 2007 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Robert   Tue Sep 18 2007 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. debris   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Robert   Tue Sep 18 2007 07:18 PM
. * * Western Bahamas Buoy lunkerhunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Tue Sep 18 2007 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. allan   Tue Sep 18 2007 04:54 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas allan   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas scottsvb   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas scottsvb   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:21 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:17 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:03 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:00 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas allan   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:49 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Tony Cristaldi   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:47 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas doug   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. hurricane expert   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:29 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:21 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas ftlaudbob   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:19 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas scottsvb   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:10 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Hurricane29   Tue Sep 18 2007 01:37 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas hurricane expert   Tue Sep 18 2007 01:24 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas typhoon_tip   Tue Sep 18 2007 12:45 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas allan   Tue Sep 18 2007 12:43 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas craigm   Tue Sep 18 2007 12:17 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas allan   Tue Sep 18 2007 11:47 AM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas doug   Tue Sep 18 2007 11:42 AM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas jojoindian6   Tue Sep 18 2007 10:32 AM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas weathernet   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:41 AM

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