Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.

In a few extremely rare instances, a tropical depression or storm has formed while mostly inland. In such extremely rare cases, the land is often very flat and in every instance I have looked in to, wet. Also, the atmospheric environment was very moist - not dry. With somewhat more frequency, tropical cyclones can start to form while a portion of them are slightly inland, but they finish the job offshore. I have never heard or read of a hurricane *just* forming while all, mostly, or even partially inland.

With regard to 93 -
The portion over land is mostly the upper level low, and not the surface low or the attendant surface trough.

I find it odd that NRL has the TCFA box up for just west of south Florida - not that it doesn't make any sense, whatsoever, just that it takes a leap of faith at this point, imho. The actual surface low, 93L, is still a good bit east of south Florida, and has been drifting north. There was an attempt late overnight to rebuild the primary LLC well to the east of this original location, but it never took. Now for the real mix-up, by all visual appearances, and also just by looking the the numerous buoy and ship data Floridians are treated to, before doing anything else it appears that the entirety of this discombobulated feature is developing a coastal low along the northward advancing warm front (this NEW low, if indeed it is forming, is centered roughly 29-30N, 79-80W). This too can transition into something a good bit more tropical before finally coming ashore. So to buy this TCFA up for where it is, you have to believe that the currently northward advancing surface low associated with 93 takes a flying jump across the state within just the next 24 hours or so, redevelops across the state within 24 hours and washes out what has been considered the center of 93L (still is, even with the TCFA issuance), or the ULL bores down to the surface there.

This brings up no less than FOUR distinct possibilities. When I start thinking in terms of four distinctly different possibilities for one Invest I know I am not looking at anything that has its act together.

So, there they are: 1) ULL bores down to the surface where TCFA is out. 2) Surface low that is meant to be 93L teleports across the state within 24 hours into where the TCFA is out 3) Surface low identified as 93L continues its march slowly north - or whatever direction, as it's been a little erratic, but mostly north - east of Florida and forms into a depression or 4) and what appears to actually be trying to happen, at least this morning at any rate, - a moisture-laden coastal low forms where the northern extent of 93's original surface low meets the warm front, as they continue generally northward in tandem.

I submit that until one of these four possibilities really steps up and stands out, this mess of an upper level low interacting with a surface low, surface trough, and warm front, will have a slow go at any substantive development, at best... and that is truly a no-nonsense, kind a "well, duh," statement.

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