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Invest 95L is now being tracked in the central Atlantic, with a 40% chance to develop and very strong model support. Those in the Lesser Antilles of the Caribbean should watch it closely Sunday/Monday. 94L at 20% chance to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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dem05
User


Reged:
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
      Wed Sep 19 2007 10:04 PM

Yeah...I guess I've gotto chime in here too...93L is not the vorticity that moved into the Cape this evening. That vorticity is just that, much like the numerous others that have spun up and spun down in the last few days around the east coast and the Bahamas, and it will fade away soon enough. What is 93L??? Actually, it is the overall system rather than a specific vorticity (That system being the area from the E GoMex to the West W Atlantic/Bahamas to N. Florida).

The vorticity seen moving into the Cape will die down as it moves inland. In general, it is rather small. Also, the conditionas are diurnal so winds will decrease over land over the evening hours and such a weak vorticity will too. Finally...the main circulation envelope at the lower levels is evolving off the SW FLorida Coast as a broad circulation under the ULL (As can be seen in the Shortwave...Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html) The vorticity that moved into the Cape today is pin wheeling around the broader lower level flow in the SE GoMex and at times, there have been subtlehints of other small vorticities...One was over Collier COunty late this afternoon for a brief time then it vanished..

If development occurs, I go with the reformation concept under the ULL off Marco Island. From there, the development would be subtropical...I also do not sense that anything developing is gonna move that fast either. The ULL hasn't moved much, nor has the relative disturbed weather. I believe the models are too fast with their evolution...

Mean time, I give subtropical development a 40% shot for now...it will not come from the Low moving through central Florida if it does...That vorticity will die in the diurnal phase land influence...it will also get absorbed into the overall surface pattern either way. That said...I give a 60% shot of no development for 93Lduring the next 24 hours.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 19 2007 10:04 PM
. * * Re: 93L and 93U pcola   Thu Sep 20 2007 06:47 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 93U madmumbler   Thu Sep 20 2007 06:47 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 93U danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 20 2007 12:47 AM
. * * Re: 93L and 93U Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 20 2007 12:16 AM
. * * 93L and 93U danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 19 2007 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. flahurricane   Wed Sep 19 2007 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Hurricane29   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. SirCane   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. cieldumort   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Hugh   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. dem05   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. weathernet   Wed Sep 19 2007 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. craigm   Wed Sep 19 2007 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Old Sailor   Wed Sep 19 2007 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Rasvar   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. pcola   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. h2ocean   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. tekkrite   Wed Sep 19 2007 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. SirCane   Wed Sep 19 2007 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Hugh   Wed Sep 19 2007 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. pcola   Wed Sep 19 2007 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. allan   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. doug   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. ChessieStorm   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. anomaly18   Wed Sep 19 2007 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. allan   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. scottsvb   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. madmumbler   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. doug   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. allan   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Fletch   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. metwannabe   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. DrewC   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Marknole   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. WeatherNut   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. metwannabe   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. cieldumort   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. craigm   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. StrmTrckrMiami   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. scottsvb   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. charlottefl   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:23 AM
. * * Models weatherguy08   Wed Sep 19 2007 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. weathernet   Wed Sep 19 2007 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. NewWatcher   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. allan   Wed Sep 19 2007 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. flarrfan   Wed Sep 19 2007 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour cieldumort   Wed Sep 19 2007 04:04 AM
. * * Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour scottsvb   Wed Sep 19 2007 03:24 AM
. * * Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour cieldumort   Wed Sep 19 2007 03:14 AM
. * * Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour dem05   Wed Sep 19 2007 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Davida G   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:32 AM
. * * Bahamas Observations-Last hour danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 19 2007 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:58 AM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. LoisCane   Wed Sep 19 2007 12:25 AM
. * * Ingrid Showing a Pulse this Evening OrlandoHurricane   Tue Sep 18 2007 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Old Sailor   Tue Sep 18 2007 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Robert   Tue Sep 18 2007 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. debris   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Robert   Tue Sep 18 2007 07:18 PM
. * * Western Bahamas Buoy lunkerhunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. OUSHAWN   Tue Sep 18 2007 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. allan   Tue Sep 18 2007 04:54 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas allan   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas scottsvb   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas scottsvb   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:21 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:17 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:03 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 03:00 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas allan   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:49 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Tony Cristaldi   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:47 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas doug   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. hurricane expert   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:29 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Storm Hunter   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:21 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas ftlaudbob   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:19 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas scottsvb   Tue Sep 18 2007 02:10 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas Hurricane29   Tue Sep 18 2007 01:37 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas hurricane expert   Tue Sep 18 2007 01:24 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas typhoon_tip   Tue Sep 18 2007 12:45 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas allan   Tue Sep 18 2007 12:43 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas craigm   Tue Sep 18 2007 12:17 PM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas allan   Tue Sep 18 2007 11:47 AM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas doug   Tue Sep 18 2007 11:42 AM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas jojoindian6   Tue Sep 18 2007 10:32 AM
. * * Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas weathernet   Tue Sep 18 2007 08:41 AM

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