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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Gulf of Mexico System
Thu Sep 20 2007 02:40 PM

I think that the re-issuance of the TCFA (generally being good for 12-24 hours at a time) that was originally hoisted yesterday morning, now makes sense. Yesterday's simply struck me as far too early a call with all the variables up in the air, and especially considering how grudgingly slow ULLs transition into subtropical or tropical cyclones... not to mention how rarely this ever happens, in the first place.

So, today we have a broad surface low, with circulation becoming more and more evident in the area buoy, ship, c-man obs., some mild convection, a few lightning strikes, in the general area of the TCFA. The disturbance is likely going to continue to have a slow go at it while the ULL sits on top of it like this, however. And we're probably not talking about especially cold temps in the mid to upper levels, and as such, thunderstorm development is taking its sweet, sweet time. I mean, we're talking a broad area of surface low pressure with rain showers here.

The recon data will probably be unusually critical in determining if NHC bumps this feature up later today or tonight, otherwise my guess is we will all wait to see what this does through another overnight cycle.. maybe convection actually starts to genuinely deepen. Talking about deepening, pressures have stopped falling, and are even levelling out or rising a bit this afternoon.

The more I look at things this afternoon, the more tempted I am to conclude that a subtropical depression will be declared, or could be declared, already. Will still take a while to become tropical from here, if it does.

Edit to add that pressures have resumed falling now (soon after I posted based on earlier data, of course lol)

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Sep 20 2007 02:57 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
TD 10 Drifts Inland - Nothing Else of Significance	MikeC	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:40 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	WeatherNut	Sat Sep 22 2007 10:29 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	madmumbler	Sat Sep 22 2007 08:49 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Beach	Sat Sep 22 2007 08:34 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Colleen A.	Sat Sep 22 2007 01:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	allan	Sat Sep 22 2007 12:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:25 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Kal	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:16 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Kal	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:11 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:43 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:52 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:47 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:40 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:11 PM
Tropical Depression Ten making landfall near Fort Walton Beach	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:52 PM
Re: Onshore now?	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:31 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:24 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Genesis	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:15 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:01 PM
Onshore now?	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:46 PM
WJHG-TV Live Stream	wxman007	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:33 PM
Re: TD 10	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:16 PM
Re: TD 10	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:50 PM
Re: TD 10	wxman007	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:32 PM
Re: TD 10	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:21 PM
Re: Other areas	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:14 PM
Re: Other areas	weather999	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM
TD 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:53 PM
Re: Other areas	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:40 PM
Other areas	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:35 PM
Tropical Depression 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:33 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:26 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:23 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:20 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	La Nimo	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:17 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	HCW	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	WeatherNut	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:05 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:56 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:39 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:08 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 01:52 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	OUSHAWN	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:22 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:14 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Wingman51	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:52 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:40 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:15 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:10 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Ed in Va	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Lee-Delray	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:31 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:22 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:04 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:07 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:09 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:25 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	flahurricane	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:18 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:14 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:11 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	charlottefl	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:05 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 01:46 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:10 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:02 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:40 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Clark	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:25 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:10 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:51 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:48 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:33 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:28 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:26 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:23 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	allan	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:21 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane29	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:05 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:01 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:45 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	weather_wise911	Thu Sep 20 2007 08:05 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:27 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:26 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	ChessieStorm	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:20 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:04 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 04:23 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 04:16 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:55 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:35 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:01 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:40 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:28 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	doug	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:20 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	srquirrely	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:11 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:07 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	ElizabethH	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:00 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:46 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:31 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:15 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	metwannabe	Thu Sep 20 2007 12:18 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 12:06 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane29	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:35 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:05 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:39 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:30 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	doug	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:06 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Thu Sep 20 2007 08:20 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mikethewreck	Thu Sep 20 2007 07:05 AM

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