No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
21 (Milton)
, Major:
21 (Milton)
Florida - Any: 21 (Milton)
Major:
21 (Milton)
Clocking in down here in Port Charlotte. We're running a bit higher on the pressure readings than up there in Plant City (I'm coming in at 29.85 or about 1010mb).
Really not the thinking behind my post however. The system may have it's shot to get closer to a subtropical something during tonight's diurnal max. One observation that I have made throughout the day is that the overall envelope...or gyre as I was calling it earlier, has been slowly contracting...So we may be getting closer to something here. During someof these contractions, you may have noticed some funny kinks and quirks in the visible satellite images and the overall radar representation of the circulation from the Tampa Bay Long Range (Link: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes )
Our best friend tonight will be the long range radar fromthe standpoint of tracking the organization. Shortwave satellelite will also be a helper after the sun goes down. That said, one final observation and possible caveat for development. I have noticed that as the overall contraction has taken place today...The broad circulation pattern is elongated...So as contraction is a plus, the elongation may also be a development inhibitor.
Final notes/thoughts. I'll go with the overall model solution. Pretty good agreement there. Iam sure you have all watched the models and compared overall movement as 93L has progressed. One overall problem I do have with the models is forward speed. The models seem to keep moving this thing along at a slow pace over the next 2 days. However, 93L really didn't move at all today and I would not be surprised if the overall solution is slower than what all the models are showing. Overall, that has been somewhat of a trend...
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