Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 56 (Milton) , Major: 56 (Milton) Florida - Any: 56 (Milton) Major: 56 (Milton)

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

None

HypeScale: 0

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US

National Hurricane Center

You are not logged in. [Login]

Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

dem05
User

Reged:
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL

Re: Gulf of Mexico System
Thu Sep 20 2007 10:26 PM

Hunter, you are a pretty lucky duck...and so has been the northern 2/3 of the state rainfall wise. Thise southern end has not seen a lot with this. I continue to sit only a 100 miles or so from the low level center (as seen in recon or in Shortwave imageryas being off the Charlotte/Sarasota County Line). Unfortunately...we've had a few showers, but seen la nada otherwise and we really need it too.

Looking at the overall picture tonight. I forecast absolutely NO subtropical and/or tropical development now. The Upper Level Low remains in the drivers seat as far as energy goes. That ULL has moved NW'erly toward the Florida Panhandle and is robbing the surface feature of all its chances. The heavy shower and thunderstorm activity remains entangled with it, as seen in the radar reflection...is all ULL activity. It is interrupting the surface low (That recon has been following), and the ULL and the surface feature are not stacked any longer. Therefore, unless the surface low re-forms under the ULL ( which may or may not occur) there is no chance of development on a subtropical level. If the Surface low does redevelop...it will have a very short amount of time to accomplish what the present low had started (The cold core-warm core transition). Likewise, if the upper level low peels off to the NW and leaves the current surface low behind (and in the area we have been tracking), that is not a fovorable circumstance. The Water Vapor imagery shows very hostile conditions approaching via very dry air and SW'erly winds. Under that influence, the surface low will likely fade away under those dynamics even if it gets leftbehind (WV Loop Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html ).

That said, I'll go all out on this one and say that the ULL will move intothe Alabama/Miss/Extreme Western Panhandle Area. Nothern Florida to Eastern Louisianna will get good rain...However, the surface reflection of this system will not develop into a tropical or subtropical system based on the current trends...

Edited by dem05 (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:29 PM)

Post Extras

Print Post

Remind Me!

Notify Moderator

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
TD 10 Drifts Inland - Nothing Else of Significance	MikeC	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:26 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	WeatherNut	Sat Sep 22 2007 10:29 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	madmumbler	Sat Sep 22 2007 08:49 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Beach	Sat Sep 22 2007 08:34 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Colleen A.	Sat Sep 22 2007 01:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	allan	Sat Sep 22 2007 12:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:25 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Kal	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:16 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Kal	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:11 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:43 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:52 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:47 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:40 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:11 PM
Tropical Depression Ten making landfall near Fort Walton Beach	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:52 PM
Re: Onshore now?	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:31 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:24 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Genesis	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:15 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:01 PM
Onshore now?	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:46 PM
WJHG-TV Live Stream	wxman007	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:33 PM
Re: TD 10	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:16 PM
Re: TD 10	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:50 PM
Re: TD 10	wxman007	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:32 PM
Re: TD 10	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:21 PM
Re: Other areas	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:14 PM
Re: Other areas	weather999	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM
TD 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:53 PM
Re: Other areas	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:40 PM
Other areas	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:35 PM
Tropical Depression 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:33 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:26 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:23 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:20 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	La Nimo	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:17 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	HCW	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	WeatherNut	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:05 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:56 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:39 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:08 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 01:52 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	OUSHAWN	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:22 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:14 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Wingman51	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:52 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:40 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:15 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:10 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Ed in Va	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Lee-Delray	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:31 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:22 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:04 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:07 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:09 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:25 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	flahurricane	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:18 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:14 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:11 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	charlottefl	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:05 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 01:46 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:10 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:02 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:40 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Clark	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:25 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:10 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:51 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:48 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:33 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:28 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:26 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:23 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	allan	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:21 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane29	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:05 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:01 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:45 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	weather_wise911	Thu Sep 20 2007 08:05 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:27 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:26 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	ChessieStorm	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:20 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:04 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 04:23 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 04:16 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:55 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:35 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:01 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:40 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:28 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	doug	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:20 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	srquirrely	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:11 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:07 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	ElizabethH	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:00 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:46 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:31 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:15 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	metwannabe	Thu Sep 20 2007 12:18 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 12:06 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane29	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:35 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:05 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:39 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:30 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	doug	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:06 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Thu Sep 20 2007 08:20 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mikethewreck	Thu Sep 20 2007 07:05 AM

Extra information

0 registered and 88 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:

Thread views: 52084

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center