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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist

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Posts: 1710

Re: Gulf of Mexico System
Thu Sep 20 2007 11:25 PM

Tallahassee radar is shooting the upper low at over 15000ft -- basically 500mb. Compounding efforts to find a low level center are many irritating points: the buoy nearest the storm failed in January and has had its replacement delayed 3 or 4 times now. Most of the other buoys in the region either don't offer winds, aren't currently reporting, or suggest a broad overall circulation. Visible satellite imagery was lost with the setting sun 4 hours ago. The last scatterometer pass occurred at 11z -- 7a ET -- on Thursday.

That basically leaves land observations and ship reports, as infrared satellite imagery is not going to pick up the surface circulation given the existence of the upper low. Attached is a ship data plot from coolwx.com at 02z; linked here is the 03z surface data plot. Whatever is there is broad, yes, but you can make the case for the surface low either moving in tandem with or redeveloping underneath the upper level low.

Given the development of convection near the center tonight and the overall tightening of the circulation as evidenced on WV imagery -- even at upper levels -- I certainly wouldn't go so far as to say that there is a 0% chance of development. It may not end up being the best-looking or most tropical of features, no, but a very real shot of subtropical or tropical development still exists with this feature. Whether it develops or not, the end result is likely to be the same -- rains and gusty winds along the coast, potential tornadic threat to the northeast of the system, and locally higher surf. I just wouldn't say that there's zero chance of development

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
TD 10 Drifts Inland - Nothing Else of Significance	MikeC	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:25 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	WeatherNut	Sat Sep 22 2007 10:29 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	madmumbler	Sat Sep 22 2007 08:49 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Beach	Sat Sep 22 2007 08:34 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Colleen A.	Sat Sep 22 2007 01:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	allan	Sat Sep 22 2007 12:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:25 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Kal	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:16 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Kal	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:11 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:43 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:52 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:47 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:40 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:11 PM
Tropical Depression Ten making landfall near Fort Walton Beach	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:52 PM
Re: Onshore now?	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:31 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:24 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Genesis	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:15 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:01 PM
Onshore now?	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:46 PM
WJHG-TV Live Stream	wxman007	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:33 PM
Re: TD 10	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:16 PM
Re: TD 10	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:50 PM
Re: TD 10	wxman007	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:32 PM
Re: TD 10	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:21 PM
Re: Other areas	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:14 PM
Re: Other areas	weather999	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM
TD 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:53 PM
Re: Other areas	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:40 PM
Other areas	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:35 PM
Tropical Depression 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:33 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:26 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:23 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:20 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	La Nimo	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:17 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	HCW	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	WeatherNut	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:05 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:56 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:39 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:08 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 01:52 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	OUSHAWN	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:22 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:14 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Wingman51	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:52 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:40 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:15 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:10 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Ed in Va	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Lee-Delray	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:31 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:22 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:04 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:07 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:09 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:25 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	flahurricane	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:18 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:14 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:11 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	charlottefl	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:05 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 01:46 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:10 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:02 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:40 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Clark	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:25 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:10 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:51 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:48 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:33 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:28 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:26 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:23 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	allan	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:21 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane29	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:05 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:01 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:45 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	weather_wise911	Thu Sep 20 2007 08:05 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:27 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:26 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	ChessieStorm	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:20 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:04 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 04:23 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 04:16 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:55 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:35 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:01 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:40 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:28 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	doug	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:20 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	srquirrely	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:11 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:07 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	ElizabethH	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:00 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:46 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:31 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:15 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	metwannabe	Thu Sep 20 2007 12:18 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 12:06 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane29	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:35 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:05 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:39 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:30 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	doug	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:06 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Thu Sep 20 2007 08:20 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mikethewreck	Thu Sep 20 2007 07:05 AM

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