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The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Gulf of Mexico System
Fri Sep 21 2007 02:11 AM

It's also not helping any that we are trying to dissect a marginal system during satellite eclipse.

Nonetheless, I'm on board with a good chance (better than 50-50) of a subtropical cyclone declared by 8PM Friday, and a somewhat smaller chance that there will be time for a more tropical transition to still occur within the next 36 hours or so.

Subtropical cyclones come in many flavors. The kind that NHC is typically more willing to officially recognize are those well-stacked ULLs that bore down to the surface and get something going.. and usually right in the smack middle of 'em. However, countless studies have shed light on a much broader spectrum of subtropical cyclones that many argue should also be formally classified. Best I can tell, 93 has been riding the line all along between the garden-variety, most widely-recognized brand of subtropical cyclone, and some of the more exotic. It's my -guess- that because 93 is so close to land, already producing the "right stuff" which we would most often expect to experience with a landfalling subtropical and even some of a tropical cyclone (these include: winds strongest in just about all quadrants well-away from the very center, squalls producing very strong gusts, tornadic squall once interaction with land, bands of heavy to very heavy and training - flooding rain) that even a small increase in organization would probably tip their hand for the bump.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
TD 10 Drifts Inland - Nothing Else of Significance	MikeC	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:11 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	WeatherNut	Sat Sep 22 2007 10:29 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	madmumbler	Sat Sep 22 2007 08:49 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Beach	Sat Sep 22 2007 08:34 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Colleen A.	Sat Sep 22 2007 01:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	allan	Sat Sep 22 2007 12:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:25 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Kal	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:16 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Kal	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:11 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:43 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:52 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:47 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:40 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:11 PM
Tropical Depression Ten making landfall near Fort Walton Beach	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:52 PM
Re: Onshore now?	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:31 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:24 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Genesis	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:15 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:01 PM
Onshore now?	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:46 PM
WJHG-TV Live Stream	wxman007	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:33 PM
Re: TD 10	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:16 PM
Re: TD 10	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:50 PM
Re: TD 10	wxman007	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:32 PM
Re: TD 10	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:21 PM
Re: Other areas	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:14 PM
Re: Other areas	weather999	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM
TD 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:53 PM
Re: Other areas	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:40 PM
Other areas	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:35 PM
Tropical Depression 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:33 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:26 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:23 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:20 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	La Nimo	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:17 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	HCW	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	WeatherNut	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:05 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:56 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:39 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:08 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 01:52 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	OUSHAWN	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:22 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:14 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Wingman51	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:52 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:40 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:15 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:10 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Ed in Va	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Lee-Delray	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:31 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:22 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:04 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:07 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:09 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:25 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	flahurricane	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:18 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:14 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:11 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	charlottefl	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:05 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 01:46 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:10 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:02 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:40 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Clark	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:25 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:10 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:51 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:48 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:33 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:28 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:26 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:23 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	allan	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:21 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane29	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:05 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:01 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:45 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	weather_wise911	Thu Sep 20 2007 08:05 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:27 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:26 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	ChessieStorm	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:20 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:04 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 04:23 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 04:16 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:55 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:35 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:01 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:40 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:28 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	doug	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:20 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	srquirrely	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:11 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:07 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	ElizabethH	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:00 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:46 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:31 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:15 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	metwannabe	Thu Sep 20 2007 12:18 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 12:06 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane29	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:35 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:05 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:39 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:30 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	doug	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:06 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Thu Sep 20 2007 08:20 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mikethewreck	Thu Sep 20 2007 07:05 AM

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