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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico
Fri Sep 21 2007 12:14 PM

Likely just a short matter of time before 10L is designated Jerry. Latest recon obs are finding surface winds out of the SSE,S, SSW already running up to 40knots. With convection continuing to fill in, and a reasonable warm core starting to show up in the data, we could see this transition close -enough to fully tropical later today to be labeled TS rather than STS.

IMHO, should this more complete tropical transition unfold within enough time before moving inland, it significantly raises the odds that, given enough time, 10L may strengthen further, with a not outlandish possibility of 10L becoming a hurricane - given enough time.

Tell ya what concerns me a little at the moment - a potential track generally westward, or wwnw, basically just offshore, in entirety, or for the most part. While there is not a lot of model support for this, there is a little, and that track is model-backed to some degree just by the model runs which take it inland, and then wnw. Should 10L not head inland, or well-enough inland, and then continue on a wwnw or w march, things could get ugly downstream. Should be watched. There have already been some big upside surprises this month.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
TD 10 Drifts Inland - Nothing Else of Significance	MikeC	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:14 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	WeatherNut	Sat Sep 22 2007 10:29 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	madmumbler	Sat Sep 22 2007 08:49 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Beach	Sat Sep 22 2007 08:34 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Colleen A.	Sat Sep 22 2007 01:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	allan	Sat Sep 22 2007 12:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:25 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Kal	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:16 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Kal	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:11 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:48 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:43 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:52 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:47 PM
Re: WJHG-TV Live Stream	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:40 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:11 PM
Tropical Depression Ten making landfall near Fort Walton Beach	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:52 PM
Re: Onshore now?	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:31 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:24 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Genesis	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:15 PM
Re: Onshore now?	Hugh	Fri Sep 21 2007 07:01 PM
Onshore now?	Wxwatcher2	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:46 PM
WJHG-TV Live Stream	wxman007	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:33 PM
Re: TD 10	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 06:16 PM
Re: TD 10	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:50 PM
Re: TD 10	wxman007	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:32 PM
Re: TD 10	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:21 PM
Re: Other areas	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:14 PM
Re: Other areas	weather999	Fri Sep 21 2007 04:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM
TD 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:53 PM
Re: Other areas	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:40 PM
Other areas	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:35 PM
Tropical Depression 10	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:33 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	danielw	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:26 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:23 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:20 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	La Nimo	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:17 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	HCW	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	WeatherNut	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:05 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:56 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	pcola	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:39 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:08 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 01:52 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	OUSHAWN	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:22 PM
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:14 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Wingman51	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:52 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:40 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:15 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:10 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Ed in Va	Fri Sep 21 2007 11:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Lee-Delray	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Trekman	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Colleen A.	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mbfly	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:31 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:22 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 10:04 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Fri Sep 21 2007 09:07 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Fri Sep 21 2007 08:09 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 03:25 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	flahurricane	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:18 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:14 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:11 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	charlottefl	Fri Sep 21 2007 02:05 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Fri Sep 21 2007 01:46 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Clark	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:10 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Fri Sep 21 2007 12:02 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:40 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Clark	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:25 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:10 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:51 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:48 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:33 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:28 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:26 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hugh	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:23 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	allan	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:21 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane29	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:05 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:01 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:45 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	weather_wise911	Thu Sep 20 2007 08:05 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:27 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:26 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	ChessieStorm	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:20 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Sep 20 2007 06:04 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 04:23 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 04:16 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:55 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:35 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:07 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 03:01 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	cieldumort	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:40 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:28 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	doug	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:20 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	srquirrely	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:11 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:07 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	ElizabethH	Thu Sep 20 2007 02:00 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:46 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:31 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 01:15 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	metwannabe	Thu Sep 20 2007 12:18 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	scottsvb	Thu Sep 20 2007 12:06 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Hurricane29	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:35 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Thu Sep 20 2007 11:05 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	dem05	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:39 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	craigm	Thu Sep 20 2007 10:30 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	doug	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:06 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 20 2007 09:03 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	OUSHAWN	Thu Sep 20 2007 08:20 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico System	mikethewreck	Thu Sep 20 2007 07:05 AM

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