MikeC
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Subtropical Storm Jerry Forms West of Azores No Threat To Land, Watching 3 Other Waves
Sat Sep 22 2007 10:57 AM
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Update - Sunday, 10:00AM EDT
Judging from observations from satellite, it appears that SubTD 10 has developed enough to be considered Tropical or Subtropical storm Jerry. Still no threat to any land.
Advisories beginning at 11 should reflect the new name.
As for the waves, here are development chances since a few asked:
Summary, a few waves to watch, nothing I would consider ominous, and nothing really has all that great a chance to develop.
Chances for Tropical Development of Disturbance in the Gulf (94L) In Next 2 days (Lounge discussion thread here )
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*-------------]
Chances for Tropical Development of Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic (96L) In Next 2 days (Discussion thread here.)
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-----*---------------]
Chances for Tropical Development of Wave East of the Caribbean (97L) In Next 2 days (Discussion thread here)
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----*---------------]
Update - Sunday, 8:50AM EDT
The quiet first part of the weekend gives way to several systems being actively tracked.
Subtropical Depression 11 formed, but will be no threat to land. It is forecast to become a Tropical Storm, however, and it would have the name of Jerry.
The wave in the west Caribbean will be moving over the Yucatan, but may develop once it gets to the Bay of Campeche. (Lounge discussion thread here )
For the system with the larger near term potential for affecting the Caribbean, the wave east of the Caribbean (97L) will have to be watched for development over the next few days, and potentially here down the road. Watch model trends.. Those in the Windward islands should pay very close attention to developments here (They could happen relatively fast, but right now it's looking more like it won't develop at all). Still the chances of it developing at all are only about 30%.. (Discussion thread here)
Another wave in the far eastern Atlantic (96L) will also have to be watched for down the road. If it persists a few days and maintains itself, a depression is possible out of it too. (Discussion thread here.)
Update - Sunday, 3:20AM EDT
Subtropical Depression 11 has formed in the North central Atlantic west of the Azores, it is expected to move northward and be no trouble for land areas. It may have the potential to reach Subtropical Storm as well, if it did so it would be called Jerry.
National Hurricane Center advisories on Subtropical Depression 11 should begin at 5AM.
Update - Saturday, 11PM EDT
Invest 94L located over the southeast Yucatan near 18.5N 86.3W at 23/00Z and moving slowly to the west northwest with sustained winds of 25 knots. SSTs in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico from 28 to 29C, however, strong southerly shear is building over the western half of the Gulf. Movement to the northwest, and IF the system develops, movement will become westerly - perhaps eventually southwesterly.
Invest 95L located in the central Atlantic near 36.2N 46.3W at 23/00Z moving slowly to the west northwest with sustained winds of 30 knots. SSTs currently a chilly 24C. Eventually an increasing movement toward the north northeast into even cooler SSTs. Although wind shear should remain rather light, significant development is not very likely.
Active tropical wave near 10N 55W at 23/00Z continues to slowly develop in 28C SSTs. System is moving to the west northwest at 10 knots within a zone of light shear. Slow additional development is possible.
Large tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands near 8N 24W at 23/00Z moving west at 10 knots under very light shear and SSTs of 27 to 28C. With no significant wind shear in its path for at least the next 5 days, this system has a good chance for additional development.
Lots of areas to keep an eye on in the upcoming week.
ED
Original Post
Of all the things in the tropics, a disturbance in the western Caribbean is the most likely to develop, but it may not be until it passes over the Yucatan peninsula and enters the southwestern Gulf. This is now being referred to as "94L".
The most likely scenario is that it crosses the Yucatan, forms into a depression in the Bay of Campeche and then begins moving more northward toward the Texas or Louisiana coastlines as potentially a sheared Tropical storm. This could change, especially if the storm stalls out in the Gulf, but that's the most likely scenario now.
Windshear is also likely to keep this in check from developing too rapidly as well, but time will tell on the system. It's worth watching for those in the Gulf, but I don't expect it to develop before it makes landfall in the Yucatan.
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|TD#11|11|11|2007|1|Tropical Depression 11}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|12|2007|3|94L (W Caribbean Wave)}}
{{StormLinks|96L|96|13|2007|4|96L (East Atlantic Wave)}}
{{StormLinks|97L|97|14|2007|2|97L (East of Caribbean Wave)}}
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 23 2007 10:28 AM)
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