Not too keen overall on 94L, not at least for the next couple of days. Upper level pattern will be okay, not overly favorable or unfavorable; watch to see if any small troughs form along that moisture axis currently extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to Florida -- it has shown a tendency to spin up a few shortwaves the past couple of days. Agree overall with HF that it might be another flash-in-the-pan type of system as it generally heads northwest along the eastern edge of the upper trough currently over Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico.
Where it goes from there depends at least partially upon whether or not that trough along the California coast captures it as it ejects northeastward over the next couple of days. If it doesn't get picked up and sent to Texas, a westward movement would be likely; I don't buy the sharp southwestward turn shown primarily by the HWRF. A few days to watch it overall, with focus from the TX/LA border southward.
95L is the more imminent development threat, looking like some of our higher latitude developments from 2005. Cyclone phase analyses from the various models are in consensus on this being right on the cusp of a tropical-like thermal structure. Satellite appearance suggests at least a subtropical structure, although it may not quite be fully detached from its parent trough. Thus, I don't expect it to be classified at 11pm, but if current trends hold overnight I do expect some classification by 11am tomorrow. (Note that the current intensity estimate in the best track file is 30kt.) It has another 24 hours or so to develop before it begins to accelerate to the north and east in advance of the trough exiting New England/Canada.
The features in the tropical Atlantic are interesting but have a long road ahead of them. The one near the Cape Verdes is probably the best organized of the two and is located at a fairly low latitude, perhaps allowing it to miss the brunt of the westerlies in the short term. The one closer to the islands is stuck in a weak-moderate dust outbreak, though that doesn't seem to be hindering it right now. It might largely be flaring up in response to the diffluent upper level environment over it thanks to the tail-end of the trough associated with 95L. Expect it to trudge west over the next few days, probably following the TUTT cell in the Central Caribbean. As mentioned above, it's interesting, but it's not an imminent threat -- if it ever becomes one at all.
African wave chain doesn't look all that impressive and we really are starting to move out of Cape Verde season. It produced a few storms -- Dean and Felix notable amongst them -- but the upper level pattern throughout the first half of the season never allowed any to form or track far enough north to become a threat to the United States. Quite the peculiar oceanic conditions north of about 12-13N near the Cape Verdes this year. That, along with the abnormally low tropical activity across the northern Hemisphere basins this year (4 in the N. Indian, 9 each in the Atlantic and E. Pacific so far, 13 in the W. Pacific), will be interesting areas of research as we move into the off-season.
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