cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Invests 94L & 95L (& 96L? & 97L?)
Sat Sep 22 2007 11:31 PM
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NHC was crystal-clear at 11PM regarding 95L:
(Re: 95L) 2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE.
Looks as good as any emerging high-lat system from 2005 tonight. 2345Z SSD gave it a ST2.5 .. probably a little conservative, really. Might just as easily gone T2.5, maybe even 3.0 imho. As Clark mentions, the thermal structure is nearly tropical tonight, and it clearly has a mix of subtropical and tropical structures on standard satellite, and a well-formed LLC in the microwave passes. Most recent Windsat had a lot of rain contamination, but some arguably believable 40-45 knot vectors. Perhaps a good bit stronger up around 925mb, however the convection appears a touch soft yet to bring those down to the surface.
Our 94L is going to have to deal some with land. As Clark points out, the entire stretch of the moisture plume associated with 94L and the remnant trofiness of TD10 has been the focus of a few weak spins. Looks to me that 94L, as it is being tracked, still has the best potential of the entire slew of lower pressures, vorticity, and moisture influx in that area. NHC strongly hints at the potential for the environment in the GOM to become conducive once it gets over the Yucatan:
(Re: 94L) UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Suspect that the models have it generally right with 94L - expect a continuation of a generally west-northwest to northward course. Even if this does not develop, Texas -does-not-need-any-more-rain-, and so a healthy tropical wave has the capacity to create a lot of ruckus over here, all on its own.
A bit surprised we do not yet have invest tags up on the two waves. The one 500 or so south of the Cape Verdes features a well-defined, yet still broad, surface low, and is another one of those way-out systems recon would be all over if closer to shore. Looking forward to seeing tags on both, and to read what kind of Dvorak numbers they are pulling from the agencies. Looks like both would earn a solid T1.0 tonight, at a minimum, as it were.
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