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#BERYL HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES From mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 310 (Idalia) , Major: 310 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 310 (Idalia) Major: 310 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#30 4:00 am EDT
21.7N 90.2W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
Wnw at 13 mph
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves
      Mon Sep 24 2007 03:25 PM

The upper pattern in the Gulf is a little convoluted right now, but it appears that 94L flared up in a narrow zone of difluence aloft (which aids convection) underneath a narrow ridge of high pressure that is sitting between a weakening upper trough over south Texas and a developing upper low over Florida. There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow in the cloud pattern, but it is also still plainly being sheared from the south at some level.

It certainly looks the part of a depression at the moment, but NHC will probably wait to see if it can maintain its current level of organization for awhile (and probably wait for a plane to get in there) before classifying the system. It actually looked better about 1-2 hours ago, but the convection that flared up near the center earlier has died down for the moment.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression 12 forms in East Atlantic... Other Waves MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 24 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves cieldumort   Mon Sep 24 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 24 2007 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves BLTizzle   Mon Sep 24 2007 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves OUSHAWN   Mon Sep 24 2007 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves Thunderbird12   Mon Sep 24 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 24 2007 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Development in Gulf Likely, Other Waves punkyg   Mon Sep 24 2007 02:40 PM

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