1:30AM EDT Update 25 September 2007
The wave in the far eastern Atlantic (formerly 96L) was upgraded to TD 12 at 11p. The official track has it moving west-northwest for the next few days before turning more toward the north-northwest late in the forecast period. Strengthening is likely with this feature, possibly to hurricane strength over the next couple of days. Elsewhere, disturbances 94L and 97L are largely maintaining status-quo early this morning, featuring low-level circulations but not a whole lot of deep convection. Both remain threats for development in the short term, although unfavorable upper level winds may hinder development for one or both of the disturbances.
Jerry was "upgraded" to a tropical storm at 11p, though it had officially degenerated into an open trough of low pressure before the advisory time. It should be absorbed by a strong cold front in the north Atlantic sometime today.
Original Update
Today two systems are looking better for development, the most immediate concern in the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico (94L). It may form as early as 5PM tonight into a depression. The current model runs have it moving more westward or even slightly south of due west toward Mexico (not likely for US landfall), and because of the upper air situation, likely no more intense than a Tropical Storm.
96L in the far eastern Atlantic may form tomorrow or the next day as well. Right now it's starting to look better, but the overall circulation remains a bit too broad to be classified.
97L near the Windwards is looking a little better today, but likely won't develop before it gets to the islands, still it must be watched.
Jerry has weakened into a depression and will turn extratropical soon.
More to come soon...
Chances for Tropical Development of Disturbance in the Gulf (94L) In Next 2 days (Lounge discussion thread here )
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------------*-----]
Chances for Tropical Development of Wave in Far Eastern Atlantic (96L) In Next 2 days (Discussion thread here.)
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----------*----------]
Chances for Tropical Development of Wave East of the Caribbean (97L) In Next 2 days (Discussion thread here)
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*-------------]
Martinique Radar
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Jerry|11|11|2007|1|Jerry}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|13|2007|4|94L (Gulf Disturbance)}}
{{StormLinks|Karen|12|12|2007|3|Karen}}
{{StormLinks|97L|97|14|2007|2|97L (East of Caribbean Wave)}}
Edited by MikeC (Tue Sep 25 2007 01:35 PM)
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Tropical Storm Karen forms in the East Atlantic, also watching other waves
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