MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
Tue Sep 25 2007 10:35 PM
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8:30 PM EDT, 27 September Update
Lorenzo has been upgraded to a hurricane, yet another TD to Hurricane storm in the Gulf this year, following Humberto. Hurricane Warnings are up for the section of Mexico that will likely see landfall.
2PM EDT, 27 September Update
Tropical Depression 13 becomes Tropical Storm Lorenzo.
11 AM EDT, 26 September Update
Karen is now near hurricane strength with 70mph winds, 98L is giving the keys a lot of rainfall now, and more will enter south Florida Later.
Karen's projected track and strength lend it more toward a continued out to sea scenario.
10 AM EDT, 26 September Update
Another Wave, 98L is now being tracked, and it's right off the Florida Keys, it is not very likely (since its mostly an upper level feature), but possible for this system to become a depression before it makes landfall in Southwest Florida, and cross the center of the state. It should then exit and move away from the US, however there may be a few things that could complicate that track, so it deserves to be watched a bit more. 98L will mostly be another rain event for Florida.
Tropical Storm Karen is a bit stronger this morning, and is moving West around 14MPH, it is still expected to turn northward and be sheared aggressively and is most likely no threat to any land areas.
TD#13 may become a tropical storm before it makes landfall in Mexico.
97L is likely not to develop at all.
Original Update
Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to move very slowly southwest and make landfall on the Mexican coastline as a Tropical Storm Friday night. Because of it's slow movement it may get stronger than forecast. One to watch for a while, at least.
Elsewhere Tropical Storm Karen continues its west northwest motion, but really has not gotten better organized today, the system still has a very weak core. Although very recently more convection has started to fire, so it may see some strengthening tonight Karen is a very large tropical storm size wise, but it still isn't very intense.
It is expected to move generally west northwest and then curve out to sea well before the Windward islands. It has about a 33% to become a hurricane before getting too far, but most likely it will remain a Tropical Storm or weaken below it.
97L in the eastern Caribbean still hasn't got more organized, and conditions are less favorable for development at present. Those in the islands will want to continue to watch it in case it does, but it appears it won't be too much a threat.
Another area in the Bahamas and approaching South Florida is interesting to watch, but won't have enough time to do much as it moves over South Florida and the keys except bring some rain. After that it may be worth watching, but chances are it too won't amount to much.
More to come later. Lots of activity in the tropics, but again, nothing pressing.
Southeast Composite Radar
{{radarlink|amx|Miami, FL}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne, FL}}
Martinique Radar
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Lorenzo|13|13|2007|4|Lorenzo}}
{{StormLinks|Karen|12|12|2007|1|Karen}}
{{StormLinks|97L|97|14|2007|2|97L (East of Caribbean Wave)}}
{{StormLinks|98L|98|15|2007|3|98L ( Florida Wave)}}
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