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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 284 (Idalia) , Major: 284 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 284 (Idalia) Major: 284 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
      Wed Sep 26 2007 05:06 AM

Am trying to figure out if things are getting busy or quiet.

Just when sub tropical systems seems dead, then suddenly back, then gone. Gulf roation, wait....convection, nope - looks like shear. Yep, strong shear but wait, a depression..... or more, or less. Waves dieing, then flaring back up, then gone, then back again. Karen getting sheared, all models point poleward and a lock to be a fish spinner, but then again...... ; and wait a minute, is'nt that the remnants of Dean retrograding eastward from Central America??? No doubt why I feel like I really need a cigarette, and I don't even smoke!

Well, scitzofrennic season ( musta spelled THAT one wrong LOL ) that it is, am attempting to maintain some focus on Karen. I still see a very large envelope system ahead of a significant easterly surge, barreling westward. I know what the models say, and I will not deny that a deepening mid Atlantic trough would have to deteriorate the overall low to mid level ridge in place, but until I see Karen up around 14N, will continue to believe she'll gain more longitude than currrent models forecast . Other brief observation is that the 0Z GFS run, at about 144 hour and out, is starting to show me a decent U.S. eastern seabord mid level ridge. Now, I am not going to "guestimate" the 500mb heights that far out, but certainly a farther west tracking Karen would certainly pose a different picture given that dynamic. If her forward motion were to slow down, I would be certainly less bullish on such a possibility. I do recall many a season where come final days of Sept., mid Atlantic tropical waves would appear "stuck in mud", and a late E. Atlantic storm would often get sucked straight toward the Azores. The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is it El Nino? La Nina? Perhaps just Muy Loco?! Can't wait to read up on the "hind-cast" analysis on THIS year.......

Until then, I'm just gonna sit back and keep one eye out for Felix - just to be sure HE'S gone, and not coming back!

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 26 2007 05:06 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico weathernet   Fri Sep 28 2007 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Lee-Delray   Fri Sep 28 2007 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico flanewscameraman   Fri Sep 28 2007 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Fri Sep 28 2007 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Lorenzo becomes a hurricane Storm Hunter   Fri Sep 28 2007 02:59 AM
. * * Lorenzo becomes a hurricane Rabbit   Thu Sep 27 2007 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico craigm   Thu Sep 27 2007 10:01 PM
. * * next week HanKFranK   Thu Sep 27 2007 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Lee-Delray   Thu Sep 27 2007 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Ed in Va   Thu Sep 27 2007 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Steve H1   Thu Sep 27 2007 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Bloodstar   Thu Sep 27 2007 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Thu Sep 27 2007 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico allan   Thu Sep 27 2007 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts craigm   Thu Sep 27 2007 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts Storm Surfer   Thu Sep 27 2007 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts cieldumort   Thu Sep 27 2007 05:35 AM
. * * Discussion Excerpts danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 27 2007 05:10 AM
. * * Re: Karen Vortex Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 27 2007 03:17 AM
. * * Karen Vortex danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 27 2007 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Lee-Delray   Thu Sep 27 2007 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 27 2007 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico craigm   Thu Sep 27 2007 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 11:04 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 StrmTrckrMiami   Wed Sep 26 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 Fletch   Wed Sep 26 2007 09:26 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 flnelson   Wed Sep 26 2007 08:56 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 07:33 PM
. * * 98L, Karen, and TD13 Bloodstar   Wed Sep 26 2007 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? WeatherNut   Wed Sep 26 2007 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Explanation Please Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 06:04 PM
. * * Explanation Please Beach   Wed Sep 26 2007 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? LoisCane   Wed Sep 26 2007 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 26 2007 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 26 2007 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 26 2007 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? Lee-Delray   Wed Sep 26 2007 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? craigm   Wed Sep 26 2007 01:39 PM
. * * Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? punkyg   Wed Sep 26 2007 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico craigm   Wed Sep 26 2007 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 08:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Rabbit   Wed Sep 26 2007 07:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 07:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Rabbit   Wed Sep 26 2007 07:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 05:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico weathernet   Wed Sep 26 2007 05:06 AM

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