cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
Wed Sep 26 2007 04:01 AM
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Well Karen's on a nocturnal tear tonight. NRL has bumped her to 45 knots, and by the looks of things, this looks solid, if not understated, already. 13 doesn't yet have the winds to follow, but by my own best Dvorak guess, and with the latest from recon, I would say Lorenzo may be found there by 11AM. 97L is back on the map, pulling a T1.0 again per last SSD. Checking buoy data within 150 miles of the estimated "center" of 97L strongly supports the continued existence of a fairly well-developed lower level center. Pressure's falling there a tad. Might be around 1011 mb low at this time, but on an improving trend again. On again - off again. Nature of these features, to be sure... but with a gradual incline to more on than off, as it is.
Feature cooking around SoFlo I am starting to buy into a bit more. Then there's also yet another very respectable easterly wave, this right on the heels of Karen. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if Invest tags go up on either or both of those two sometime today. This is starting to look a lot like the Ghost of Christmas's past, if not yet the present.
As for landfall potentials, 13 is land-locked. It is going to have to impact someone, and most likely it's going to be Old Mexico, but Texas might not write it off just yet. If Karen isn't north of 14.5N by the time she is 50W we need to start questioning the model runs so far. One thing for certain regarding her future track.. if tonight's any indication.. Karen probably won't be a lightweight, shallow system out there. 97 is probably heading into the GOM and/or Florida Straits, development or no development. SoFlo disturbance probably gets ejected out to the NNE or NE... may be a potent Stream Runner (tm) if it gets its footing together. I'm very interested in seeing if the wave behind Karen should follow Karen, in her wake.
Lots and lots on the map. Makes ones eyes bug out a bit.
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