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#Beryl strengthening east of the Caribbean Islands, may be a hurricane tomorrow. Barbados is now under a Hurricane Watch as Beryl may be there Monday. Area east of Beryl up to 60% and 94L at 40%.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 304 (Idalia) , Major: 304 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia) Major: 304 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#3A 1:00 pm EDT
9.8N 46.8W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
      Wed Sep 26 2007 10:58 AM

I thought this was very interesting from the 11:00 TD13 Discussion...

Global models forecast a weak mid-level
ridge to build eastward slowly from northern Mexico over the Gulf
of Mexico. This should eventually result in a southwestward to
westward motion of the tropical cyclone toward the coast of Mexico.
Although the consensus of the track guidance models indicates the
abovementioned motion...there are significant differences amongst
the individual models. It should be noted... however...that all of
the dynamical models keep the system offshore through 36 hours.


You notice how is says "weak" ridge and it looks like there may be some doubt over at the NHC about what will really happen with TD13 if you read between the lines.

Shawn

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 26 2007 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico weathernet   Fri Sep 28 2007 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Lee-Delray   Fri Sep 28 2007 08:11 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico flanewscameraman   Fri Sep 28 2007 06:06 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Fri Sep 28 2007 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Lorenzo becomes a hurricane Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 27 2007 10:59 PM
. * * Lorenzo becomes a hurricane Rabbit   Thu Sep 27 2007 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico craigm   Thu Sep 27 2007 06:01 PM
. * * next week HanKFranK   Thu Sep 27 2007 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Lee-Delray   Thu Sep 27 2007 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Ed in Va   Thu Sep 27 2007 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Steve H1   Thu Sep 27 2007 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Bloodstar   Thu Sep 27 2007 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Thu Sep 27 2007 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico allan   Thu Sep 27 2007 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts craigm   Thu Sep 27 2007 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts Storm Surfer   Thu Sep 27 2007 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts cieldumort   Thu Sep 27 2007 01:35 AM
. * * Discussion Excerpts danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 27 2007 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Karen Vortex Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 11:17 PM
. * * Karen Vortex danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 26 2007 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Lee-Delray   Wed Sep 26 2007 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico craigm   Wed Sep 26 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 07:04 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 StrmTrckrMiami   Wed Sep 26 2007 05:51 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 Fletch   Wed Sep 26 2007 05:26 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 flnelson   Wed Sep 26 2007 04:56 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 03:33 PM
. * * 98L, Karen, and TD13 Bloodstar   Wed Sep 26 2007 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? WeatherNut   Wed Sep 26 2007 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Explanation Please Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 02:04 PM
. * * Explanation Please Beach   Wed Sep 26 2007 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? LoisCane   Wed Sep 26 2007 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 11:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 26 2007 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 26 2007 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 26 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? Lee-Delray   Wed Sep 26 2007 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? craigm   Wed Sep 26 2007 09:39 AM
. * * Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? punkyg   Wed Sep 26 2007 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico craigm   Wed Sep 26 2007 07:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 04:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Rabbit   Wed Sep 26 2007 03:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 03:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Rabbit   Wed Sep 26 2007 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico weathernet   Wed Sep 26 2007 01:06 AM

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