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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)
22.3N 102.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
W at 24 mph
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
next week
      Thu Sep 27 2007 05:52 PM

story next week ought to be whatever is in front of karen and karen itself. karen looks like it's going to hold out against the upper trough pretty well, and early next week it should be through it. assuming survival, nothing but a big ol' ridge in the western atlantic all next week. the ones that almost die and then come back can sometimes be the real bad ones. ingrid got ripped up by shear a while back, and it could happen just the same way again. hope so at least. a lot of the guidance is going to start coming further west with karen over the next couple of days.. should get a big hairier. how deep a system is south of bermuda in 3-4 days should determine whether it's hung and drifting in the upper trough axis or into the wheelhouse.
these latin-sounding storms in the gulf are playing games just lately. whereas humberto took days to organize but went ballistic just off the texas coast, lorenzo looks like it's going to make the run to hurricane strength before landfall as well. like it's predecessor it's a tiny storm and not likely to have a very wide swath of influence.
a lot of the globals are showing a coastal storm stuck under the ridge ahead of karen as the current upper trough swings through quickly and leaves a fairly large inverted trough in its wake. that might be a focal point or it could just as easily be a big messy nothing like the current one strung from florida to new england.
globals still trying to pop one more out near the cape verdes before last call. this late in september they usually stop rather abruptly.
HF 2152z27september

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 27 2007 05:57 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 27 2007 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico weathernet   Fri Sep 28 2007 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Lee-Delray   Fri Sep 28 2007 08:11 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico flanewscameraman   Fri Sep 28 2007 06:06 AM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Fri Sep 28 2007 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Lorenzo becomes a hurricane Storm Hunter   Thu Sep 27 2007 10:59 PM
. * * Lorenzo becomes a hurricane Rabbit   Thu Sep 27 2007 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico craigm   Thu Sep 27 2007 06:01 PM
. * * next week HanKFranK   Thu Sep 27 2007 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Lee-Delray   Thu Sep 27 2007 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Ed in Va   Thu Sep 27 2007 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Steve H1   Thu Sep 27 2007 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Bloodstar   Thu Sep 27 2007 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Thu Sep 27 2007 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico allan   Thu Sep 27 2007 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts craigm   Thu Sep 27 2007 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts Storm Surfer   Thu Sep 27 2007 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Discussion Excerpts cieldumort   Thu Sep 27 2007 01:35 AM
. * * Discussion Excerpts danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 27 2007 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Karen Vortex Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 11:17 PM
. * * Karen Vortex danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 26 2007 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Lee-Delray   Wed Sep 26 2007 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico craigm   Wed Sep 26 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 07:04 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 StrmTrckrMiami   Wed Sep 26 2007 05:51 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 Fletch   Wed Sep 26 2007 05:26 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 flnelson   Wed Sep 26 2007 04:56 PM
. * * Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13 Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 03:33 PM
. * * 98L, Karen, and TD13 Bloodstar   Wed Sep 26 2007 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? WeatherNut   Wed Sep 26 2007 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Explanation Please Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 02:04 PM
. * * Explanation Please Beach   Wed Sep 26 2007 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? LoisCane   Wed Sep 26 2007 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 11:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? OUSHAWN   Wed Sep 26 2007 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 26 2007 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 26 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? Lee-Delray   Wed Sep 26 2007 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? craigm   Wed Sep 26 2007 09:39 AM
. * * Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? punkyg   Wed Sep 26 2007 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico craigm   Wed Sep 26 2007 07:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 04:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Rabbit   Wed Sep 26 2007 03:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Wed Sep 26 2007 03:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Rabbit   Wed Sep 26 2007 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico Storm Hunter   Wed Sep 26 2007 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico weathernet   Wed Sep 26 2007 01:06 AM

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