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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

craigm
Storm Tracker

Reged:
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida

Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
Thu Sep 27 2007 06:01 PM

I know it's a forum rule to not repost entire advisories or discussions but, I couldn't find a direct link to this discussion on the main page Unless you go through the NHC link. I left out the Lorenzo part.

TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT...SOME RECENT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH DAY
5...INDICATING GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...SHIPS...AND THE LGEM ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND THE 96 TO 120 HR PERIOD WHEN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. CONSEQUENTLY...
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS
POSSIBLE...ALBEIT NOT INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

KAREN IS MOVING AT 305/11...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS KAREN PROPAGATES WITHIN THE
DEEP-LAYERED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE AGREEING IN BUILDING THE MID- LEVEL RIDGE MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE CAUSING KAREN TO TURN MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 14.3N 48.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.5N 49.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.8N 51.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 17.8N 52.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 18.7N 54.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 55.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 56.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 58.5W 40 KT

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	MikeC	Thu Sep 27 2007 06:01 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	weathernet	Fri Sep 28 2007 09:30 AM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Lee-Delray	Fri Sep 28 2007 08:11 AM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	flanewscameraman	Fri Sep 28 2007 06:06 AM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Fri Sep 28 2007 05:09 AM
Re: Lorenzo becomes a hurricane	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 27 2007 10:59 PM
Lorenzo becomes a hurricane	Rabbit	Thu Sep 27 2007 07:54 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	craigm	Thu Sep 27 2007 06:01 PM
next week	HanKFranK	Thu Sep 27 2007 05:52 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Lee-Delray	Thu Sep 27 2007 04:37 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 27 2007 04:13 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Steve H1	Thu Sep 27 2007 04:08 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Bloodstar	Thu Sep 27 2007 03:35 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Thu Sep 27 2007 02:36 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	allan	Thu Sep 27 2007 02:13 PM
Re: Discussion Excerpts	craigm	Thu Sep 27 2007 12:51 PM
Re: Discussion Excerpts	Storm Surfer	Thu Sep 27 2007 12:44 PM
Re: Discussion Excerpts	cieldumort	Thu Sep 27 2007 01:35 AM
Discussion Excerpts	danielw	Thu Sep 27 2007 01:10 AM
Re: Karen Vortex	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 11:17 PM
Karen Vortex	danielw	Wed Sep 26 2007 08:54 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Lee-Delray	Wed Sep 26 2007 08:45 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 08:35 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	craigm	Wed Sep 26 2007 08:00 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Wed Sep 26 2007 07:04 PM
Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13	StrmTrckrMiami	Wed Sep 26 2007 05:51 PM
Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13	Fletch	Wed Sep 26 2007 05:26 PM
Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13	flnelson	Wed Sep 26 2007 04:56 PM
Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 03:33 PM
98L, Karen, and TD13	Bloodstar	Wed Sep 26 2007 02:52 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	WeatherNut	Wed Sep 26 2007 02:27 PM
Re: Explanation Please	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 02:04 PM
Explanation Please	Beach	Wed Sep 26 2007 01:16 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	LoisCane	Wed Sep 26 2007 12:24 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 11:41 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	cieldumort	Wed Sep 26 2007 11:31 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	OUSHAWN	Wed Sep 26 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	MikeC	Wed Sep 26 2007 10:57 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	MikeC	Wed Sep 26 2007 10:33 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	Lee-Delray	Wed Sep 26 2007 09:48 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	craigm	Wed Sep 26 2007 09:39 AM
Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	punkyg	Wed Sep 26 2007 09:15 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	craigm	Wed Sep 26 2007 07:24 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Wed Sep 26 2007 04:01 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Rabbit	Wed Sep 26 2007 03:33 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Wed Sep 26 2007 03:26 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Rabbit	Wed Sep 26 2007 03:11 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 01:58 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	weathernet	Wed Sep 26 2007 01:06 AM

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