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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser

Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.

Re: Lorenzo becomes a hurricane
Thu Sep 27 2007 10:59 PM

darn... gone all day... away from Panama City... and come back and Lorenzo makes a run up to Hurricane... just off shore of Old Mx.... Nice! Just looked over the recon data from today... wow.. so compact of system!!! Starting to look at the NOAA data on Karen... just glanced at a few models... looks like if karen survives another 2-3 days, things might get interesting.... as the ridge builds back to the north of it. Looks like its going to be, how much of shear can the system take for about 48-72 hrs?

11pm Adv. on karen..

HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TURN THE STORM OUT TO SEA AND ALL MODELS
BUILD RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM...FORCING A WEST-NORTHWEST
TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH THIS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
IF THE STORM WEAKENS MORE THAN EXPECTED...THIS FORECAST MAY HAVE TO
BE ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE WEST..ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT-TERM.

Also read Lorenzo Discus.... I am really interested to what recon finds in a bit when they get there.. actually how far down the drop of pressure went. Would like to know too if it will make cat 2 or more at landfall? this might set another 2007 record if it keeps agoing!

Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 27 2007 11:38 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	MikeC	Thu Sep 27 2007 10:59 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	weathernet	Fri Sep 28 2007 09:30 AM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Lee-Delray	Fri Sep 28 2007 08:11 AM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	flanewscameraman	Fri Sep 28 2007 06:06 AM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Fri Sep 28 2007 05:09 AM
Re: Lorenzo becomes a hurricane	Storm Hunter	Thu Sep 27 2007 10:59 PM
Lorenzo becomes a hurricane	Rabbit	Thu Sep 27 2007 07:54 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	craigm	Thu Sep 27 2007 06:01 PM
next week	HanKFranK	Thu Sep 27 2007 05:52 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Lee-Delray	Thu Sep 27 2007 04:37 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 27 2007 04:13 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Steve H1	Thu Sep 27 2007 04:08 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Bloodstar	Thu Sep 27 2007 03:35 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Thu Sep 27 2007 02:36 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	allan	Thu Sep 27 2007 02:13 PM
Re: Discussion Excerpts	craigm	Thu Sep 27 2007 12:51 PM
Re: Discussion Excerpts	Storm Surfer	Thu Sep 27 2007 12:44 PM
Re: Discussion Excerpts	cieldumort	Thu Sep 27 2007 01:35 AM
Discussion Excerpts	danielw	Thu Sep 27 2007 01:10 AM
Re: Karen Vortex	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 11:17 PM
Karen Vortex	danielw	Wed Sep 26 2007 08:54 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Lee-Delray	Wed Sep 26 2007 08:45 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 08:35 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	craigm	Wed Sep 26 2007 08:00 PM
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Wed Sep 26 2007 07:04 PM
Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13	StrmTrckrMiami	Wed Sep 26 2007 05:51 PM
Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13	Fletch	Wed Sep 26 2007 05:26 PM
Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13	flnelson	Wed Sep 26 2007 04:56 PM
Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 03:33 PM
98L, Karen, and TD13	Bloodstar	Wed Sep 26 2007 02:52 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	WeatherNut	Wed Sep 26 2007 02:27 PM
Re: Explanation Please	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 02:04 PM
Explanation Please	Beach	Wed Sep 26 2007 01:16 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	LoisCane	Wed Sep 26 2007 12:24 PM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 11:41 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	cieldumort	Wed Sep 26 2007 11:31 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	OUSHAWN	Wed Sep 26 2007 10:58 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	MikeC	Wed Sep 26 2007 10:57 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	MikeC	Wed Sep 26 2007 10:33 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	Lee-Delray	Wed Sep 26 2007 09:48 AM
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	craigm	Wed Sep 26 2007 09:39 AM
Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?	punkyg	Wed Sep 26 2007 09:15 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	craigm	Wed Sep 26 2007 07:24 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Wed Sep 26 2007 04:01 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Rabbit	Wed Sep 26 2007 03:33 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	cieldumort	Wed Sep 26 2007 03:26 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Rabbit	Wed Sep 26 2007 03:11 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 26 2007 01:58 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico	weathernet	Wed Sep 26 2007 01:06 AM

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